Overview for gop-primary

Santorum Masters Retail Politics

David Frum argues that a "A Romney-Santorum contest is not much of a contest at all." He's probably right about this. Romney beats Santorum hands down in resources, organization, discipline, and support from GOP elites. But there's one wild-card that could make things interesting: Santorum may …

Written by Eli Lehrer on Wednesday January 4, 2012

The Road Ahead

In the wake of the Iowa caucuses, what matters now is not the exact order of Romney, Santorum, and Paul; the numbers are very close. What does matter is the range between the candidates. Iowa gives us basically a tie between Romney and Santorum, with both at around 25%. Ron Paul comes out a strong …

Written by Fred Bauer on Wednesday January 4, 2012

Confirmed: The Ames Straw Poll is Useless

We have just received yet another confirmation of the virtual uselessness of the Ames Straw Poll . The proud winner of the straw poll, Michelle Bachmann came in sixth in the Iowa caucuses (and in fact finished dead last among all serious contestants--Jon Huntsman just ignored Iowa). Furthermore,…

Written by Andrew Pavelyev on Wednesday January 4, 2012

Ron Paul's Personal Responsibility

Andrew Sullivan complained yesterday that I had engaged in a "McCarthyite" attack on Ron Paul by writing the following : A politician isn’t answerable for the antics of every one of his supporters. But there’s surely a reason, isn’t there, that racists, anti-Semites, 9/11 Truthers, and …

Written by David Frum on Tuesday January 3, 2012

Waiting Time in Iowa

I attended Romney's closing rally last night in Des Moines. Very professionally done, introduction by Senator John Thune. Three themes really stood out: * Romney opened with a statement about the danger from Iran. Without mention of Ron Paul, it astutely poked at the top vulnerability of the …

Written by David Frum on Tuesday January 3, 2012

Don't Blame Romney for Ballot Trouble

The Republican Party of Virginia is on the verge of the appearance of a significant scandal. Allegations , fueled by a post by Richard Winger at Ballot Access News , are swirling, suggesting that the Virginia GOP changed the rules for the validation of signatures in October 2011: But what has …

Written by Fred Bauer on Tuesday December 27, 2011

It's Still Romney's Turn

Rick Perry and Newt Gingrich's mutual failure to qualify for the Virginia ballot raises lots of questions about their long term viability, funding, and organization. But it isn't that surprising at all for one simple reason: neither has run for President before while the two candidates who …

Written by Eli Lehrer on Monday December 26, 2011

Will Newt Win? Lets Ask President Giuliani!

Though Newt Gingrich seems to be styling himself as the inevitable nominee, a look back at the polling in during the Republican primary race in late 2007 suggests that Gingrich's camp should not get too confident yet. In December 2007, no polls seemed to show McCain as the frontrunner. …

Written by Fred Bauer on Wednesday December 7, 2011

Why I Like (George) Romney

With the race for the Republican Presidential nomination now seemingly down to two candidates – Newt Gingrich and Mitt Romney – suddenly Romney is in the uncharacteristic role of underdog. Astonishingly (to me), polls show Gingrich some 10 points ahead of Romney in the upcoming Iowa primary; …

Written by Peter Worthington on Tuesday December 6, 2011

Your Morning Newt Basket

John Podhoretz on Gingrich in the New York Post today . "[Republican primary voters] know him mainly from Fox News." From a funny story in Politico that I missed while traveling: "He’s going to blow up at some point, and I’m just hoping it comes before he gets the nomination,” said one …

Written by David Frum on Tuesday December 6, 2011

Give Santorum His Chance

Well the punditry has pretty much come down to determining that Republican choices are Gingrich or Romney. Here’s the big Kahuna of Conservative Commentary on that very subject. In my quest to avoid voting for Romney I have pretty much picked through the remainders of announced candidates …

Written by John Vecchione on Monday December 5, 2011

State Legislators Like Romney, A Lot

Scottsdale, AZ--Even as he continues to fight off challenges from an ever-changing troop of "flavor of the week" candidates, Mitt Romney's organization appears to be gaining the type of support it most needs to win primaries--the support of conservative legislators. Here, as the American …

Written by Eli Lehrer on Thursday December 1, 2011

Signs of Hope, Part 2

American elections are always hotly contested, and 2012 already conforms to type. Yet Mitt Romney at least is opening the contest by acknowledging the realities faced by President Obama in 2009: {Y]ou were dealt a hard hand. You came into office in the midst of an economic crisis that was not …

Written by FrumForum Editors on Tuesday November 22, 2011

The Nominee Will Be Romney and the GOP Will Like Him

Although I'm hardly optimistic that he'll take the presidency, there's every reason to think that Mitt Romney is going win the Republican nomination and attract the votes of his own party members. Thus, while I would still bet on Obama to win reelection, I disagree with David Frum 's contention …

Written by Eli Lehrer on Tuesday November 1, 2011

The GOP's Best Case/Worst Case

In my column for CNN, I discuss how the Tea Party will react to the different possible outcomes of the 2012 election: A new CNN poll finds that about half of Republicans sympathize with the tea party movement. The other half either remain aloof or (5%) even express hostility. That second …

Written by David Frum on Monday October 31, 2011

With Rick Perry: Hope for the Best

The campaign for the Republican nomination for President now gets serious. A variety of polls indicate that Texas Gov. Rick Perry currently has the lead. Perry’s surge has drawn a range of reactions—fear from his fellow GOP contenders, scorn from the “Progressive” wing of the Democratic Party, …

Written by Steve Bell on Wednesday September 7, 2011

Huntsman: The Truer Conservative

Here’s a brief biography of two candidates: One of them presided over arguably the best business climate in the nation, so good that Forbes magazine ranked it as the best state for business and careers. As governor, he enacted free-market health care reforms, balanced the budget, and thus …

Written by J.D. Hamel on Wednesday September 7, 2011

More Jobs, Better Pay: What the GOP Can Do

In my column for CNN, I explain why Rick Perry's record on job is both his greatest strength and weakness: Gov. Rick Perry enters the presidential race with one big advantage and one big impediment. The advantage: his record of job creation in Texas. His impediment? His record of job creation …

Written by David Frum on Monday August 15, 2011

Who Do I Support with Pawlenty Gone?

I have been supporting Tim Pawlenty for president this go round. Now it appears I have to find a new candidate . My reasons for supporting him were that he was from a Democrat leading Midwestern state and had run a generally conservative administration. He seemed like a serious man with a nice …

Written by John Vecchione on Monday August 15, 2011

Romney Gets His Challenger

For two years, disaffected conservative Republicans have shopped for an alternative to Mitt Romney. They have worked their way through Sarah Palin, Tim Pawlenty, and Donald Trump among others. The Ames straw poll turned a spotlight on Michele Bachmann. Until now, anti-Romney Republicans have …

Written by David Frum on Saturday August 13, 2011