The Budget Deal's Biggest Winner
Conventional wisdom saw House Speaker John Boehner as all tan and no substance. As usual, conventional wisdom got it wrong. In Friday’s budget deal, Boehner amassed enough credibility with his own caucus that he can now confront the larger fiscal challenges ahead.
Boehner accomplished two things that many in this town thought beyond him. First, he negotiated brilliantly on the FY11 Continuing Resolution, ending up with more savings than almost anyone expected and revealing both the Senate leadership and White House as almost passive participants.
Second, he proved to those "Tea Party" House Republicans that he can be trusted to keep their interests in mind as he negotiates.
The Speaker will need all his accumulated political capital as both the FY12 budget and the upcoming vote to increase the federal debt limit loom. Both will present challenges well beyond anything that the CR demanded.
This Wednesday, if administration sources are to be believed, President Obama will unveil his comprehensive fiscal plan. If he does so, it will be an abrupt turn of strategy for this president. On health care reform and other major issues during the 111th Congress, Obama was content to vaguely call for action, but was careful not to issue any detailed plan himself. He followed the same strategy ("it's Congress' problem, not mine") on the Continuing Resolution. His budget for FY 12 contained nothing of note, beyond allowing federal deficits to continue at $1 trillion or more for another decade.
Color us skeptical. At this moment, it’s not hard to hear the political arm of the White House (and campaign in Chicago) urging the President to be cautious and vague. After all, the House Budget Committee Chairman has revealed a FY12 budget that touches all the sensitive areas of the budget: Medicare, Medicaid, other entitlements. Political strategists within the Democratic Party must hope that they can just pull out the 30-second commercials and blogposts that hurt the GOP in the 2008 once again in November 2012.
At least two members of the administration give fiscal hawks some comfort: Jack Lew at the Office of Management and Budget and Gene Sperling, the President's economic advisor. Both were critical players in the 1997 budget deal between President Clinton and Republicans in Congress. If allowed to follow their instincts, Lew and Sperling may be able to persuade Obama to ignore the purely political voices in his party.
Before the president reveals his ideas on Wednesday, Rep. Chris Van Hollen, senior Democrat on the House Budget Committee, will produce his own budget Tuesday. Details remain pretty sparse on the Van Hollen plan, but rest assured that it will differ fundamentally from the Ryan plan outlined last week.
It may well be a triumph of hope over experience to believe that something positive may come of all the machinations of the week ahead. But, given the dismal fiscal landscape ahead, we can be forgiven for briefly seeing the oasis instead of the vast desert surrounding it.