Dems Lose Support of Women and Independents

The New York Times writes:

Democrats lost significant support Tuesday among women and independent voters, in an election that was a referendum on Democratic government in a stubbornly weak economy.

Women have been among Democrats’ most loyal supporters, giving them a majority of their votes in all but one of the past 14 election years, but in this year’s midterms they split between the parties, according to surveys of voters leaving the polls. Since 1982, when exit polls first measured support, Republicans only once received the same share of women’s votes as Democrats — in 2002 — and Democrats lost their narrow majority in the Senate that year.

Independent voters, who in 2006 mostly voted for Democrats to help end Republicans’ 12-year majorities in the House and Senate, this time turned just as strongly against Democrats. Two other groups who have supported Democrats recently — suburban residents and college graduates — also gave Republicans more of their votes this year.

That support was in addition to the Republicans’ traditional strong backing from men; white voters; older voters; those making more than $50,000 a year; self-described conservatives; Protestants; evangelicals; frequent churchgoers; Southerners; and Midwesterners.

Democrats drew support from their party’s traditional base — younger voters; blacks and Hispanics; those without high school diplomas and those with post-graduate education; voters earning less than $50,000; women with children; black women; voters from union households; and Easterners.

Democrats suffered from the defections among women and independents, and also from an electorate that, over all, tilted conservative in a year in which Republicans showed more enthusiasm to come out to vote against President Obama and a Democratic-controlled Congress. Majorities of voters told interviewers that they believed government was doing too much.

Voters who described themselves as moderates preferred Democrats by a significant margin, and liberals preferred them overwhelmingly, but the two groups were outnumbered by conservatives. Moderates and voters under 45, who also favored Democrats, were a smaller share of the electorate on Tuesday than they were in 2006.

Still, moderates’ strong preference for Democratic House candidates reflected the electorate’s general sense that conservatives now dominate the Republican Party. There is also the acknowledgment of the emergence of the Tea Party movement — the most conservative of conservatives — as a major force.

While the survey results provided a wealth of good news for Republicans after two devastating election cycles, the results were also accompanied by warning signs for the party’s long-term prospects.

Among the few demographic groups that preferred Democrats were several that are important to the composition of the future electorate: young voters, those under age 30, Hispanics and Asian-Americans. Those groups have objected to the Republicans’ tough stands against illegal immigration and are among the fastest-growing constituencies in the country.