Boehner is in Danger of Losing Caucus Control

Reports from the Hill indicate that House Speaker John Boehner and his staff are "re-writing" the Speaker's plan to pass an extension of the looming debt ceiling.  That announcement, coupled with the serious objections of many in the House GOP caucus when the plan was first announced, reveals that the Speaker is in danger of losing control of his own caucus.

For months now, political analysts have wondered how the Speaker would maintain some coherence among his fractious newcomers.  It is to his credit that he has been able to do so for this long, given ambitions of others within his leadership and the power of the 103-member Republican Study Committee, headed by Rep. Jim Jordan, a Tea Party favorite.

As Republican presidential candidates variously indicate either mild or neutral feelings about Boehner, it doesn't take a genius to figure out that the next week is critical not only to solving the nation's debt ceiling dilemma, but to the Speaker's real power within his own caucus.

Clearly, Boehner doesn't have the votes for any plan that will bring along a majority of his caucus and pass a debt ceiling increase.

An idea that perhaps Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid will cooperate with the Speaker and have the Senate pass some form of the Boehner plan first fails on two counts, we think.  First, any hint that such cooperation exists will alienate a large majority of House Republicans.  Second, the fundamental failure of either the Reid plan or the Boehner plan to do much except freeze discretionary spending and establish a commission to study the problem for about the third time in less than a year remains a true stumbling block.

Finally, it is difficult to imagine a Senate passed bill that could pass the House unamended without a majority of Democrats and only a minority of Republicans.  That combination could prove a mortal political wound to the Speaker.

Right now, we remain (pessimistically as always) persuaded that the House and Senate will pass a short-term extension, with some dollop for conservatives, and begin the entire tragic-comedy all over again in a few months.

And to those who say, okay, that's better than nothing, we reply: "Not really. The world is watching and wondering.  What is wrong with America?"