Will Cao's Lead Hold?
A stunning new poll shows GOP Rep. Joseph Cao leading his likely Democratic opponents by up to twenty-five points.
A stunning poll first reported by Hotline on Call shows Republican Congressman Joseph Cao leading likely Democratic opponents in Louisiana’s 2nd Congressional District by up to twenty-five points.
Cao currently represents the most Democratic district held by a Republican, with a Cook Partisan Voting Index of D+25. A common narrative is that Cao’s victory in 2008 was a fluke, spurred by the corruption indictments of his Democratic opponent.
Just one month ago, progressive website FireDogLake wrote that “it is very hard to imagine how [Cao] holds on in a general election this November against untainted Democratic opponents.”
And yet, conventional wisdom has been presented with a stinging rebuke.“I was surprised by it… I was one of those who believed that there is virtually no hope for reelection,” said Verne Kennedy, a Louisiana pollster and the President of Market Research Insight, which conducted the polling on behalf of the Republican campaign.
The path to a Cao reelection will depend substantially on how many African-American voters turn out, and how they will view Cao on Election Day. In a district that is 61% African-American, this poll indicates that he’s received a relatively warm welcome – he polls evenly against his African-American opponent Cedric Richmond among African-Americans.
Cao’s district contains a substantial portion of New Orleans, and Kennedy points to the city’s recent mayoral race as a sign of things to come. The February election saw the first white mayor elected in over thirty years due to a combination of biracial support and lower African-American turnout.
Also working to Cao's advantage is his race, which matters in this district. “[Cao] is a minority, and as a minority he has a much higher acceptance than would a Caucasian,” says Kennedy. Cao is one of two Republican Asian-Americans in the House at the moment, the other being Hawaii Congressman Charles Djou.
Not to be discounted is Cao’s impressive life story. His father fought for the South Vietnamese Army, and was airlifted out of Saigon just days before the city was taken over by communist forces. Cao arrived in the United States as a refugee, landing in Indiana at the age of 8 without his parents. And now he’s a U.S. Congressman, and the first Vietnamese-American in the House to boot.
A few further words of note: Kennedy told FrumForum that his polling model actually over-represented African-Americans. Although the district is 61% African-American, data shows that they make up a lower percentage of voters on election days.
“We had to determine what percentage in the model we would designate to African-American voters… We set it at 57%,” said Kennedy. “Actually, that’s too high, but we left it at 57% because we felt it would impact the credibility of the survey [if we set it lower]… I am 99% sure that African-Americans will not make up 57% of the voters in the general election.”
Kennedy puts the likely African-American turnout in this district at around 53%, and given Cao’s popularity among white voters, it suggests that the district is even more in favor of reelecting the Congressman than this poll shows.
But while it is heartening to see that the GOP’s most unlikely congressman has a fighting chance, there is still room for pause. His Democratic opponents are less prominent than him, and as they campaign over the next few months, the gap between Cao and his challengers will likely shrink. Either way, this is a race to watch.
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