Why Obama Will Win the Shutdown

Howard Dean is liberal, and perhaps even a tad crazy.  Stupid, though, he is not.  Former Gov. Dean joined several other prominent Democrats Tuesday at the “National Journal Insider’s Conference” where they went back and forth on the political ramifications that would accompany a government shutdown.

Dean, never one to mince words, didn’t pull any punches: “If I was head of DNC, I would be quietly rooting for it.  I know who’s going to get blamed – we’ve been down this road before.”  Indeed we have.  While Dean claimed not to be cheering for a shutdown… he sort of is deep down. “From a partisan point of view, I think it would be the best thing in the world to have a shutdown,” said the former Governor of Vermont.

While Dean’s political side upset former Rep. Vin Weber, who shot back that “this isn’t 1995… Obama is not Clinton; Boehner isn’t Gingrich,” Dean is exactly right.  What Dean gets, and what Weber and everyone else seem to miss, is that the characters are less important than the roles they play.

Bill Clinton, while certainly a talented communicator, was all over the place when he ended Newt’s rise in the mid ‘90s and it had everything to do with him being President.  Presidents act unilaterally and command the attention of the nation whenever they choose.

The Speaker of the House, on the other hand, is like an extremely powerful babysitter of a large group that doesn’t agree on anything.  Before a Speaker can act, he has to consult with his party.  By the time the Speaker’s message has been coordinated, the President’s people have been banging away at the message of the day for six hours on every cable news show in the country.

Whatever your opinion of the rhetoric itself, President Obama and his White House know how to control a news cycle.  Ergo, it doesn't matter if the GOP hires Zues to represent it in the budget negotiations, if there is a shutdown, the Democrats will win.  Such is the power of the Presidency.

Follow Jeb on twitter: @JGolinkin

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