Santorum Could Be Iowa Spoiler
Politico reports:
SIOUX CITY, Iowa — He barely registers in most early polling. He was crushed at the polls five years ago when he sought reelection. He even acknowledges the widespread belief that he can’t possibly win the Republican presidential nomination.
And yet Rick Santorum could alter the course of the Iowa caucuses.
National Republicans may scoff at the notion that Santorum — whose Senate career ended in 2006 with an 18-point loss — could be a player, but he’s signed up strategists here who know the state well, and veteran Iowa activists think he could have an opening.
Recent history proves there’s a space for an unyielding cultural conservative. Christian broadcaster Pat Robertson, who took 25 percent of the Iowa vote to come in second place in 1988, and Mike Huckabee, who won the 2008 caucuses with 34 percent, are the best-known examples. But even in 1996 and 2000, when establishment Republicans Bob Dole and George W. Bush captured Iowa, candidates to their right drew roughly a quarter of the vote.
And if Huckabee and Sarah Palin both sit out the 2012 race — as their inaction at this still-early moment suggests they might — there will be a vacuum within the GOP’s social conservative wing. Santorum, with his sterling anti-abortion and anti-same-sex marriage credentials, would have a strong case to make to Iowa caucus-goers, 60 percent of whom were self-described evangelicals or born-again Christians in 2008, according to entrance polls.
Iowa tradition also bodes well for Santorum: The state has a habit of rewarding those who honor the state’s treasured first-in-the-nation status by making frequent trips here and asking for votes one at a time. Santorum is already putting in the legwork, having been to the state 11 times since 2009.
“He’s probably making the most ground in this part of the state,” said Sam Clovis, who hosts a conservative talk show in Republican-heavy northwest Iowa.
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