Prediction Time
The betting markets are too thin to rely on for this cycle, but they do fit with my general read on the situation: McDonnell wins, Hoffman wins, Christie loses.
ON MCDONNELL: What can I say? It's been just a wonderfully run, and a wonderfully lucky, campaign all the way through. Let's hope that it extends down to the assembly level, so that something resembling McDonnell's policy papers can actually get passed. The goal should be ads in four years stating, "They said it would be dead on arrival..."
ON HOFFMAN: Some big shifts in the race over the weekend, of course, but ultimately I think Hoffman will pull it out. When Dede was competitive, I was pretty close to making an argument for Bill Owens for tactical reasons. I didn't want to see Owens pull out a plurality victory, I didn't want a liberal Republican to win over a moderate Democrat, I didn't think Scozzafava would drop as fast, and I didn't think Hoffman would get competitive. So, I was wrong, but what I was not wrong about was the strength of the Owens vote; he is a good candidate. It won't be enough, though, and here's why. Think about it: if Scozzafava can't even deliver the vote of her own spokesman, how is she going to sway the district?
ON CHRISTIE: Sorry, New Jersey, but the Daggett votes are going to shift to Corzine and he'll ultimately pull it out. Daggett voters will decide that they'd rather not have adversarial, gridlocked government for the next four years, and will hope against hope that Corzine is finding his way to the right policy mix that will get the state to muddle through. New Jersey voters will also be hoping for some economic "coordination" on the national policy front, and they should get it. After all, the New Jersey governor's race will be Obama's one and only successful initiative this year.
I hope I'm wrong about that last one, but hey.