Hoffman Pulls Ahead in NY-23
A new Siena Research Institute poll released just minutes ago shows Conservative Doug Hoffman with a five point lead over Democratic candidate Bill Owens in NY-23, paving the way for a third-party victory on Tuesday. With just one day to go before Election Day, Hoffman led Owens 41%-36%.
However, the number of undecideds in New York has skyrocketed since Republican Dede Scozzafava abruptly pulled out of the race and endorsed Owens. Just two days ago, Siena reported that 9% of the voters in the district were undecided. Today, that same figure stands at 18%.
"Hoffman continues to demonstrate momentum, picking up six points since Scozzafava pulled out,” said Siena pollster Steven Greenberg. “It appears, however, that the majority of Scozzafava’s supporters have gone to neither Hoffman nor Owens, but rather into the undecided column, which has doubled since Scozzafava ended her candidacy.”
This poll, coming on the eve of Election Day, represents the first time in the race where Hoffman has led in a Sienna poll. The last Sienna survey had Hoffman trailing by one point, but within the margin of error.
Interestingly, while Scozzafava's withdrawal has seen Hoffman's numbers buoyed by 13% among Republicans, this survey also shows the Conservative Party candidate losing his lead among independents. Just two days ago, Hoffman had enjoyed a 40%-35% lead over Owens among independents. Now, Hoffman trails by six points, with only 37% support from independents, compared to Owens' 43%.
With nearly a fifth of the district still unsure as to how they are going to vote, this election will come down to the wire. The difference will be in each campaign's Get Out the Vote efforts - the team that knocks on the most doors, puts up the most lawn signs and calls the most voters may well be the victor.
"This is still a wide open race,” Greenberg said. “The two candidates and campaigns are both in a sprint to try and convince these undecided voters to support them. Whichever campaign succeeds in convincing the undecided voters and then getting them to the polls tomorrow, will likely be looking at a victory."
This past Saturday's Siena poll, which some suggest precipitated Scozzafava's withdrawal that same day, was expected to be the final poll before Election Day. However, given the dramatic turn in events, the Siena Research Institute decided to conduct a last-minute survey on Sunday, and released it this morning.
Update: Steven Greenberg, a pollster with the Sienna Research Institute, notes in an interview with FrumForum that these polling numbers do not take into account Scozzafava's endorsement on Sunday afternoon. The polling was done throughout the day and into the evening, so while some keen observers of the race may have known about Scozzafava's backing, the vast majority did not.
"Most voters in New York's 23rd are not political junkies, so they're not constantly monitoring the blogs and news sites. I would bet that...most people didn't know until they watched the evening news or picked up the newspaper this morning," said Greenberg.
With a five point lead and almost a fifth of the district undecided, Scozzafava's endorsement will have a real impact on the results of tomorrow's vote. Indeed, even though she has dropped out of the race, her support in the poll stood at six percent, more than Hoffman's lead.