Pakistan's Patience Runs Out
What has always made the war in Afghanistan especially hazardous, is not the warlike independence and xenophobia of Afghans, but that Pakistan has long been a refuge for Taliban fighters.
That may be changing, now that the Pakistani Taliban (similar but different from the Afghan version) have decided they want to overthrow the existing government and take charge.
First in the Swat valley, north of Islamabad, Pakistani patience ran out in the summer as compromises and ceasefires were violated. The army was unleashed to bring the Swat Taliban to heel. While the army restored order, it didn’t eliminate the Taliban.
This fall, the Taliban attacked an army headquarters, killed a couple of senior officers, and provoked another Pakistani military reprisal campaign in South Waziristan, adjacent to Afghanistan. The CIA says Waziristan is “the most dangerous place on earth,” and possibly the sanctuary of Osama bin Laden.
Some 30,000 Pakistani troops are involved – this time more seriously intent on eliminating the Taliban as a threat to overthrow the government. For the first time, locals have cause to feel more secure.
If Pakistan is to survive as a functioning state, it will have to solve its Taliban problem. The army’s solution may be to kill as many suspect Taliban as possible, and not worry about “collateral” damage (civilian deaths). Easier for Pakistani troops than ours.
The good news in what seems a looming civil war, is that it makes the Pakistani military de facto allies with NATO against a mutual foe. Good news, too, is that it has the potential of curtailing a sanctuary for terrorists and Taliban who menace Afghanistan.
Bad news is that the Taliban have a lot of support in Pakistan, and within the Pakistani military and intelligence services. Worse news is that if they ever win and take over, the Taliban will have access to Pakistan’s nuclear arsenal.
That makes Pakistan more dangerous than Iran.
All this should be festering in President Barack Obama’s mind, as he ponders how to extract himself from his earlier promise to expand the war in Afghanistan.
In fact, Obama really has no choice.
He’s got to commit to more U.S. troops to occupy villages and support the people and aid organizations, and to dissuade Taliban aggression while training and strengthening the ANA – Afghan National Army.
There is no other way.
As soldiers, Afghans are brave but difficult. They like attacking, but aren’t big on patience. Figuring artillery co-ordinates are beyond them, since mathematics and literacy are not strong points.
U.S. General Stanley McChrystal’s greatest obstacle in waging a winning war may not be the Taliban, but the President and his inner circle, to whom he listens. War by committee decisions is a recipe for disaster – especially when the committees are staffed by glibness minus military experience – like Vice-President Joe Biden who has never served in the military but thinks unmanned attack drones are sufficient to win.
It’s reasonable that Obama wants to be sure – but there’s very little certainty in an insurgency war, where the enemy is resourceful, diversified, and always unpredictable.
Still, it’s encouraging the Pakistani military is coming to realize of the Taliban what was originally said of the Turks: You can’t defeat them, you can only kill them.”
At least that’s a start.