Election Forecast: A Clean Sweep for Conservatives
As John McLaughlin says at the end of every show “Predictions!” We are one week from the first elections of the Obama era. The key (and virtually only races) are to be found in Virginia, New Jersey and New York’s 23rd Congressional District.
In Virginia, Attorney General Bob McDonnell is running for Governor against Creigh Deeds who he beat for his current position four years ago by less than 400 votes. Current Lt. Governor Bill Bolling is running for that position again, making a great sacrifice for party unity in so doing. He is opposed by Jody Wagner. Finally, current State Senator Ken Cuccinelli (R) is facing off against my state representative Steve Shannon (D).
In New Jersey, the premier fight is between incumbent Democrat John Corzine and Republican Chris Christie with former liberal Republican Chris Daggett also running. The Lt. Governor in NJ runs on the ticket with the Governor.
Finally, a donnybrook has broken out in New York's 23rd district. This seat will likely be gerrymandered out of existence after the census, even if the Republicans take back the Senate or get the Governorship. Nonetheless it presents a powerful test of Republican, Conservative and Democratic strength. Local Republican leaders picked Dede Scozzafava to run on the Republican ticket. An Acorn and Daily Kos-supported Republican backing same sex marriage, abortion on demand and various fiscal profligacies has not done well in this district. The Democrat Bill Owens may be less socially liberal than Ms. Scozzafava. The race has caused a fight between Republicans and arguments over who is the spoiler.
I will make predictions in descending order of certainty.
1. The next Governor of Virginia will be Bob McDonnell. He has run a flawless campaign against a foe who has followed the lead of the Washington Post rather than past successful Democrats in Virginia.
2. Ken Cuccinelli will be the next AG of Virginia. In the interest of full disclosure I was a delegate for him at the Republican convention but he has run circles around Shannon and has performed well. Even in his own district the lawn signs for Cuccinelli outnumber his. He has a grassroots organization that will get his vote out and I think he will be either the second or highest vote getter in Virginia.
3. Bill Bolling will be the Lt. Governor again. This race has been squeezed out by the other two and produced no fireworks. His opponent is the most formidable of the Democrats. Still the Democrats are cratering in Virginia and have virtually no issues that resonate.
Summary of Virginia: At this point a loss of any of these positions would be a black eye for Republicans. They have run better campaigns, have a better political environment and have better candidates. A Democratic diehard might pick Jody Wagner for an upset against an incumbent and to balance out the Republicans but I am not one of those.
4. Chris Christie for Governor of New Jersey. I feel like Charlie Brown with Lucy’s football on this one. Every year we have hope in this suburban state and every year the Democrats pull away with the victory. I lived in New Jersey when the anti-tax tide swept Christie Todd Whitman in against Jim Florio who had raised them in the midst of the 1990 economic downturn. That same anger is what Corzine has elicited. As people enter the voting booth I do not see Dagget picking up the amount of votes he’s polling. The New Jersey electorate is brutally practical. Christie has been dropping but I believe he has bottomed out and the despair of a New Jersey with more years of Corzine will be too much to bear. Even Hudson County will not have enough voters to put Corzine over. Look for Daggett to come in under 7% and Christie to win with 46.5% of the vote. John Corzine will have spent an enormous sum of money to lose the Governorship of a deep blue state by less than 2%. South Jersey will go all for Christie and Corzine’s margins in the Democratic North will not be as robust as normal and this will spell doom for Corzine.
5. Doug Hoffman will be the next (and last) Congressman from the 23rd district of New York. Dede Scozzafava has no natural constituency. The lifestyle liberalism she represents is anathema to Republicans and Upstate in general. Her big spending ways eliminate fiscal conservative support. The hard left will have a very hard time voting for a Republican in any case and ought to go to the Democrat, but that Democrat is moderate on the social issues that animate the Left in the present age.
So how does Hoffman win? There is a tide in the affairs of men. Hoffman chose to challenge the Republican Party of NY at its nadir, and also picked a time when Democrats are in trouble. He picked a conservative leaning district. Every single Hoffman voter is going to turn out on Tuesday. Neither Owen nor Scozzafava can say that. Further, a number of people are going to pick a third party line because of distaste for the main party offerings that do not “fit” the district. He has national presence and a recognizable platform. He is the only “no’ vote for President Obama’s spending available in the district. He will serve one term and then see his district destroyed by New York’s ever shrinking share of the national population.
The last two predictions are not good bets right now. In a normal year Corzine gets just enough votes, as two Republicans split the vote, to win. The same for Owen in New York. He should win when two Republicans split the vote. The problem is this is a special election. The electorate will be more Republican and conservative than usual and he has not only the national Democrats but an unpopular governor and Albany culture in general to run against.
A clean sweep for the socially conservative (but pragmatic) right and a warning to the administration and congressional Democrats. Not a bad day’s work, if only I’m right.