Kasich Surges in Ohio

Republicans in Ohio are seeing a resurgence in Ohio, with John Kasich and Rob Portman both winning their races.

On a cold night on the eve of Election Day in Ohio, I ran into a young Democratic volunteer handing out campaign information in Cleveland's working-class suburb of Parma.  "I worked for Obama two years ago, and I was excited," the volunteer said.  "Now, it doesn't seem to matter to me.  They're all the same."  This volunteer's disappointment with the Democrats seems to be shared by many others in the Buckeye State.  To wit, Gov. Ted Strickland, who enjoyed an approval rating of 71% among Democratic voters in 2007, has seen that same rating among Ohio Democrats shrink to a mere 48% in 2010.  Partisan conservatives like Rush Limbaugh rejoiced when, this past Sunday, President Obama had difficulty filling an arena for a pep rally in Cleveland.  Democrats here don't seem convinced that their leaders deserve another shot at power, which reflects the national mood.

That misplaced trust has not necessarily found itself on the Republican side of the aisle; despite his low approval ratings, Gov. Strickland finds himself in a dead heat with Republican challenger John Kasich.  Even so, most Republicans here are enjoying a resurgence, in no small part because of the Democrats' difficulties in office.  Republican Rob Portman is poised to crush Lt. Gov. Lee Fisher in the race to fill Sen. George Voinovich's seat, and, among other candidates, Josh Mandel, the Republican nominee for Treasurer, is enjoying a lead with healthy margins, according to an October 31 Columbus Dispatch poll.

I took a short break from my job on the East Coast to work on Josh Mandel's campaign, and it was during my time campaigning that I ran into the disenchanted Democratic volunteer.  Though the Ohio treasurer's race is a small race that would only matter to Ohioans and has little national significance, it is also seemingly a microcosm of the bigger, national races that are generating more press.  Mandel, a two-time state representative from Ohio's 17th District, has attacked incumbent Democratic Treasurer Kevin Boyce for cronyism and general ineffectiveness during Boyce's tenure in Columbus. In addition to providing Ohioans reasons to vote for him, Mandel is showing voters that the status quo is unsustainable.

In addition to the types of candidates featured in the race, the mood of the electorate here seems to reflect the national one, as well.  There seem to be two poles:  largely apathetic voters, like the Democratic volunteer, who are tired of the whole process, and energized Republican voters who are eager to throw the bums out.  At a raucous rally this past Sunday in Chillicothe, attendees boisterously approved of soon-to-be Speaker John Boehner’s unintentionally ironic anti-establishment rhetoric.  Smelling blood, these voters enthusiastically supported the candidates’ remarks opposing government spending and in favor of greater governmental restraint and discipline.

It’s disheartening to imagine what the mood will be here in 2012 if the Republicans don’t deliver. Ohio voters in 2012, having been let down by the Democrats following big wins in 2006 and 2008, and, hypothetically, by the Republicans in 2010, might sound more and more like that volunteer in Parma.  The numbers reflect a growing sense of alienation among voters, as well: in 2006, 56% of Ohioans voted in the midterm election.  Despite a charged conservative base and all the Republican bluster, turnout in 2010 is likely to be just a bit higher than 50%.  The energized Republican candidates realize what’s at stake.  By adopting a plan that resembles one employed by Mitch Daniels (governor of Ohio's more prosperous neighbor, Indiana), Ohio Republicans can use the momentum generated in this race to establish a Republican stronghold for the next couple of election cycles, at least.  That, surely, is change Boehner, Kasich, Mandel and Co. can believe in.