Obama's Wake Up Call

Last night, by a 2 to 1 margin in Virginia and by almost as much in New Jersey, self-described independents sided with the GOP -- the same independents who backed Obama in 2008.

I went to bed last night with a sense of satisfaction regarding my state of New Jersey that I haven’t felt in quite a long time.  The election of a Republican governor though was less a vote for Chris Christie than a vote against unpopular Governor Corzine.  Corzine seemed unable or unwilling to take on the Democratic machine while corruption ran amok, spending fueled by the highest property taxes in the nation spiraled out of control and unemployment crept to just under 10%.  The third party challenge of Chris Daggett was expected to draw votes from Christie yet according to exit polls, two-thirds of Daggett voters said they approved of Obama suggesting his supporters were leaning Democratic.

The significance of the Republican gubernatorial victories in both traditionally Democratic New Jersey and the “new swing state” of Virginia should not be underestimated by the Democrats.   Both Bob McDonnell and Christie won by larger than expected margins that Robert Gibbs cannot spin away. On the economy, the voters did not buy Obama’s excuses that we are still suffering from the calamitous policies of his predecessor.  Billboards had sprung up throughout New Jersey showing Christie’s face plastered side by side with George W. Bush’s, but voters were indifferent to such a dubious nexus. The future of the Democratic majority in Congress as well as Obama’s hold on the White House will ride squarely on the shoulders of an economic recovery with jobs attached. The single most disconcerting result for Democrats though has to be that by a 2 to 1 margin in Virginia, and by almost as much in New Jersey, self-described independents sided with the GOP -- the same independents who backed Obama in 2008.

Still, Republicans should be cautiously optimistic.  After all, any incumbent running in an era of high unemployment, and on the heels of the worst economic implosion in seventy years was bound to have an uphill battle.  And as the NY-23 special election shows, Democrats with the right message are still able to withstand the ideological slings and arrows from talk radio and Wasilla to be elected in traditionally GOP districts. Perhaps the GOP can be both comforted and cautioned by Churchill’s famous phrase: “This is not the end.  This is not even the beginning of the end.  But it is, perhaps, the end of the beginning.”