Hoffman's Loss, Kirk's Gain

After the Democratic victory in NY-23, the real winners may be Republican moderates like Illinois Rep. Mark Kirk. Hoffman's defeat dismisses the idea that the GOP can win moderate districts without the support of moderate voters.

Doug Hoffman’s loss is Mark Kirk’s gain.  The New York 23rd, which fell into Democratic hands yesterday, is historically a moderate Republican district.  Had Hoffman scored a solid victory, it may have threatened candidates like the moderate Mark Kirk with low American Conservative Union (ACU) ratings by bolstering the Republican establishment's beliefs that the GOP need not run moderate candidates in order to win traditionally moderate districts. Hoffman’s defeat is a strong rebuke of any such claims. Moderate candidates like Kirk can point to Hoffman’s defeat as a blueprint for how not to run a campaign if the objective is to attract relatively moderate voters and win.  Hoffman’s defeat puts candidates like Kirk in a stronger position to run the sort of moderate campaign that they believe can lead Republicans to victories.