Obama Faces His Limits
Today the country awakened to a snapshot of clarity. Not the moral clarity that comes back to bite, but the clarity that comes with a cold winter sun shimmering on a frozen New England pond. Massachusetts' voters spoke: Ted Kennedy is gone, say a requiem for Obamacare, let's deal with the realities of joblessness, and deficits, and please, Democrats, stop acting like you know better than the rest of us what is best for us.
Whether the White House and the Congress "get it" remains to be seen. The first indications are mixed. On the one hand, Congressman Barney Frank and Senator James Webb are making the kinds of noises that give one hope that these lessons are being learned. Last night, Frank issued a statement that indicated that you can't force things on the public that it doesn't want. Early today, Webb said that the Senate should not take up healthcare until Massachusetts Senator-elect Scott Brown was seated. This is smart. This is political maturity.
Unfortunately, it is not clear that all are acting like grownups. In the run-up to yesterdays special election Speaker Pelosi vowed to pass healthcare, one way or another. The House Democratic campaign chair Chris Van Hollen made all the noises of being unmoved and unbowed.
At the White House there was a full press to localize the election loss and blame it on Coakley. Was Coakley a lame candidate? Yes. Was it simply about her? No. Can I blame the White House for trying to distance itself from the debacle? No. The White House must find the idea of Scott Brown sitting and watching the State of the Union Address from the floor of the House galling.
But the White House is ignoring the recent results in New Jersey and Virginia. There is a trend. The White House is pretending it didn't hear the heckling in Boston. It was there alright - much as Obama's face clouded up when it didn't go away.
The White House is also willfully forgetting the 1991 Democratic victory in the Special Election for the senate seat of the late John Heinz, when Democrat Harris Wofford beat former Pennsylvania Governor and U.S. Attorney General Dick Thornburgh. Thornburgh's loss was a harbinger of Bush 41's loss a year later. Pennsylvania went Republican in ‘88, but was sending a message to the Elder Bush. The Bush White House heard the message, but failed to digest it.
So now Obama is in the same place. On a personal level, the country finds Obama likeable enough, as the Washington Post put it this morning. But his policies are meeting growing skepticism and resistance. Oddly, in the face of all this, Obama is preliminarily vowing to fight on. For what? To what end?
At this juncture, healthcare is close to unsalvageable. The House can either pass the Senate Bill or push for reconciliation. For House Dems, the Senate Bill is too pork laden, too fiscally conservative, and insufficiently pro-life unless you're pro-choice.
As for reconciliation, its chances are too iffy and the process, at this juncture too anti-democratic.
Even trying to ram healthcare through will further transform Reid and Pelosi into caricatures of who they are - an ex-boxer who has seen too many rounds and the nation's ward heeler in chief.
Meanwhile, the White House is saying that it doesn't want to play small ball. Sounds like Bush 43 redux.
There is wisdom in incrementalism. As Dirty Harry said, a man has to know his limitations.
In the next 9 months we will find out how smart Obama and Company really are.