Harper's Dropping Numbers
A startling drop in the polls for Canada’s Conservative party, has both pollsters and pundits pondering the reason. Or, rather, pondering an explanation.
The true “reason” for the demise in political popularity may have nothing to do with what the people who specialize in giving explanations after the fact, say about the situation.
Last fall, Prime Minister Stephen Harper’s Conservatives were 12 to 15 points ahead of the Liberals (depending on which poll you trusted) and in majority territory if an election were held.
The conventional explanation for the difference was that Liberal leader Michael Ignatieff was too unconnected with voters, that he hadn’t campaigned all summer to woo support, that he was too arrogant, elitist and Toronto-oriented.
Ignatieff hasn’t done much since then to change his style, other then embark on his present tour of universities hoping to shore up intellectual support - as if that’ll wow the Joe the Plumbers who comprise Canada’s working stiffs.
So how to rationalize current polls that show Tories and Liberals roughly even at around 30%? Harper hopes his cabinet shuffle will correct that. It won’t, but it’s a try.
A widely accepted explanation is that voters are angry that Harper prorogued – suspended – Parliament until March, thereby cutting off debate (and opposition criticism) over Canadian soldiers turning over Taliban insurgents they captured to Afghan authorities who might (undoubtedly did) mistreat or torture them.
The PM, defence minister, and a passel of generals accept responsibility but blame others, insisting they weren’t told (but should have known anyway). Their poor-mouthing the diplomat in Afghanistan (Richard Colvin) who reported such abuse (though he hadn’t witnessed any), supposedly has turned the public off the Tories, and boosted Liberals at the polls.
If you ask me, it’s a bunch of hogwash.
Canada’s Parliament traditionally takes long Christmas and summer breaks that are only dreamed of by working Canadians. When Parliament is on such breaks, the country cruises amiably along, generally at peace with itself and relieved that the squabbling and acrimony of Parliament is muted for a time.
Looked at objectively, and compared with almost any other country anywhere, Canada is faring better than most in this time of recession and economic unease. When confronted, most Canadians realize their fortune.
They realize too – and when asked, polls show it – that while Stephen Harper isn’t as warm and fuzzy as they might like, he’s a damn good administrator, has no shortage of ideas, isn’t inclined to panic, and runs the government pretty effectively, albeit a trifle dogmatically and high-handedly. Not a bad trade off. No rival matches his leadership.
What may give him trouble when he decides to call an election (which no one really wants), is his apparent fading support for our military in Afghanistan.
Canada is due to remove all combat troops by next year, regardless of the situation. If not exactly cut-and-run, it’s as Conrad Black recently wrote -- a policy of “We’ve done enough.” This is not acceptable in an on-going war against terror that must be won, or at least resolved. Barack Obama sees this (finally), and he is right.
It may well be an election issue for Canada, but for the moment, Harper’s unusually quick response to Haiti’s earthquake will likely stop bleeding at the polls. Meanwhile, proroguing continues.