NJ Governor's Race Goes Down to the Wire

Of the four races to be decided tomorrow, the one whose outcome is probably the hardest to predict is the gubernatorial election in New Jersey.  The state has a natural Democratic tilt, and the last time that New Jersey elected a Republican governor was 1997, when moderate Christie Todd Whitman won the office by one point.  This year, Democratic incumbent Jon Corzine has not been able to surpass 43 percent support in any poll taken this year, but he has the dual advantages of the state’s leftward lean and a huge personal fortune to fund his campaign.  He is facing a tough challenge from Republican Chris Christie, a former U.S. attorney, whose history as a corruption fighter may strengthen his chances in a state where corruption is a perennially important issue to the state’s voters.

Though Christie led by double digits throughout much of the summer, the race has tightened up of late.  Perhaps the biggest reason for this has been the insurgence of Independent candidate Chris Daggett.  Daggett, who previously served in the administration of N.J. Governor Tom Kean, emerged in the late summer as an alternative for those voters not happy about either of the major party choices.  During the early fall, Daggett saw his numbers climb into the mid-to-high teens, certainly high enough to impact the outcome of the election.  One of the biggest questions going into Election Day in New Jersey is how many will actually cast their vote for Daggett, given that his chances of becoming governor are slim to none.   According to the latest Quinnipiac poll, only 61 percent of Daggett supporters say that they definitely will not change their mind come Election Day, compared to 86 percent of Corzine supporters and 90 percent of Christie supporters.

As voters go to the polls, the race remains too close to call.  Of the four polls released on Monday, three put Christie up, while one shows Corzine in the lead:

The results of each of these polls fall within their respective margins of error, so any prediction of how the race will turn is really no more than an educated guess.  Though Daggett’s support appears to be slipping in the final days of this campaign, he still has the potential to be a game-changer.  Another potential complication has nothing to do with politics: in the event that the Yankees win Game 5 of the World Series tonight, there will be a less of a focus on the governor’s race from the NYC and Philadelphia media, which may result in depressed turnout. Will it be Christie or Corzine who hits a grand slam tomorrow?  Right now, it seems that these teams are too evenly matched to make a definitive prediction.