Newt's Government Shutdown Revisionism

The Newt Gingrich engineered government shutdown of 1995 destroyed Republican approval ratings and helped seal the reelection of President Clinton. Yet, Gingrich is now pushing a repeat of this disastrous strategy.

In an interview with Dave Weigel, Newt Gingrich argues that the government shutdown of 1995 was not the disaster generally remembered. He describes that version of history as “the standard, elite, inside-the-Beltway worldview.” No, the shutdown was a huge success because:

1. It mobilized Republicans and allowed them to maintain control of Congress in the 1996 midterms--despite Bill Clinton being reelected.

2. The shutdown led to Bill Clinton adopting a balanced budget.

If those are victories, it's hard to imagine what defeats would look like.

Republicans did hold Congress in 1996, but dropped seats: a net loss of 8 in the House of Representatives. Voters seemed to take an especially dim view of Republicans who had taken direct personal part in the shutdown: of the 21 incumbents who were defeated, 18 were Republicans.

Gingrich's claim that the shutdown led to a balanced budget is equally wrong. The important steps toward balance had already been taken before Gingrich became party leader, in 1991 and 1993. The George H.W. Bush budget deal in 1991 (opposed by Gingrich) and Clinton's first budget together raised taxes and slowed the growth in Medicare spending - putting the government on a trajectory to balance as economy recovery resumed after the 1990-91 recession. The budget was already within striking distance of balance when the shutdown occurred; one more year of economic growth did the trick.

What the shutdown indisputably did do was sour Republican approval ratings. Gingrich’s personal approval rating was at 27% during the shutdown, and Congress as a whole had a 24% approval rating--one of its lowest points historically.

And this sour turn may have had some unforeseen consequences: Eager to repair his standing post-shutdown, Gingrich suddenly turned cooperative, striking deals with President Clinton on welfare reform and other measures. Those deals in turn undermined the Republican case against the Clinton presidency, sacrificing the presidential campaign of Robert Dole.

So Gingrich is leaving the record incomplete: any tally of the effects of the shutdown must acknowledge that it helped re-elect Bill Clinton. Why does Gingrich imagine that a 2011 re-enactment would have a different effect on the re-election hopes of Barack Obama?