Is Khamenei Dead?
The rumor has been spreading since yesterday that Iran's Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei is dead or in a coma, following a stroke or something similar.
Except for a limited number of people around Khamenei, nobody knows whether there is any truth to the rumor, so there is no point in speculating about his succession. Besides, whoever succeeds him, we will not be much better off as long as the regime holds.
But a few comments can be made anyway.
First, the death of a totalitarian leader is often preceded by rumors and then some explicit signs. When Radio Moscow played classical music all day, a good news day was to be expected (they played a lot of classical during the 80's). In France, that just means public radio employees are on strike.
Second, when they cut off most means of communication during the post-election troubles, the Iranian authorities exposed themselves to what is happening now. Means of transmission like the internet and mobile phones make fact-checking easier. Right now, it seems that Twitter is still the main source of information on what is taking place in the streets of Tehran, and Twitter is an unreliable channel of communication. Maybe it is untrue that black has been displayed on Tehran official buildings, or that Basij units have taken position in the streets, but we simply don't know, and Iranians outside Tehran may not be sure either.
Third, the rumor itself may trigger a new round of instability, as happened a number of times through history. During the 1830's, the French government decided to nationalize the optical telegraph, for fear that a revolt could spread from one city to another before the government had time to take the appropriate measures to stop it. That didn't work. First, that led to the public monopoly on telecom which lasted until the 90's. Second, clandestine networks were put in place, and third, agitation ceased only when universal suffrage was instituted.
But more importantly, cutting off transmissions in order to keep people from rising also means that the government doesn't know what is going on. Gorbachev was the first to be surprised at how much the Soviet people positively hated the regime when his glasnost made it possible to say it publicly. Iran has gone in the opposite direction last spring, and has subsequently come closer to a Soviet-like totalitarian state (it was never very far): A closed box inside which nobody knows what is going on. We don't, but they don't either.