Is Cameron Losing the Rank-and-File?

In hope of political success, British conservative voters grudgingly accepted party modernization. What arrived however was only a partial success.

Click here for all of David Frum’s blogposts from the 2010 Conservative Party conference.

By the standards of an American party convention, a British party conference is a frugal affair. The combined budgets of all the receptions being given in Birmingham probably would not pay for a single one of the large corporate-sponsored events in Denver or St. Paul in 2008.

But even if they don't pass the crab claws around, the parties here are abundant, lively, and talkative. After enough glasses of bad wine, even an out-of-country visitor can pick up a conference mood, and it is this:

The rank-and-file Conservative is not very happy. In hope of political success, he or she grudgingly accepted party modernization. What arrived however was only a partial success: a hung Parliament and a coalition with the Liberal Democrats, a party that the rank-and-file Conservative typically finds even more annoying than he or she finds Labour.

And they are not liking the proceedings at this conference very much either. First big news: Chancellor of the Exchequer George Osborne announcing cuts in cash benefits for middle-class parents, i.e. ... them. Next big news: Justice Minister Kenneth Clarke musing this morning about releasing prisoners earlier.

Draconian budget cuts are obviously impending, which will mean bad poll numbers for the Conservatives and the government. Yet they are being asked to agree that foreign aid must be sacrosanct, to please their Lib-Dem coalition partners. Big changes in the health service are likely to be necessary too, and probably that will mean more out-of-pocket costs for people who earn above-average incomes, again i.e. ... them.

It's possible to discern here the first rumblings of some kind of revolt by the more right-wing conservatives. One likely candidate for chief rebel is Liam Fox, the defense minister. Fox wrote a private letter to Prime Minister Cameron protesting cuts to the defense budget. Somebody then leaked the letter (minus 2 pages - an interesting detail) to the Daily Telegraph. Are the predicates for a resignation being put in place?

Right now, there wouldn't be much Conservative sympathy for such an action. The dissatisfaction is latent, not acute. But 18 months from now? When the government's poll numbers are likely to have deteriorated, and when the humdrum of running a welfare state has overwhelmed former hopes of big reforms? Watch for it.