How Ron Paul Could Save Obama

John Podhoretz writes about the possibility of a third party bid by Jon Huntsman and whether he could harm Obama in the process. As heartening as I found it, I wish to take issue with part of the argument. I do not think the key to a third party candidate damaging one or the other main candidates has to do with the president being an incumbent. I think it has to do with their ability to appeal to the ideologies of their constituencies. This seems clear from the historical record.

First agreement, it is amazing that the Democratic Party was once so mighty and the Republican Party so weak, that the Democrat’s Southern Bourbon and McGovernite wings could both run independent candidacies and the Republicans still lost. Harry Truman’s win with both Strom Thurmond and Henry Wallace in the race is still amazing. Both candidates pulled voters who would under no circumstances vote Republican, and hurt Truman.

George Wallace in the 1968 election also hurt the Democrats. Those voters were simply not going to vote Republican given the issues mix in 1968. Wallace took five states that had not voted for a Republican in a free vote in a hundred years. In other states he drew away Democratic votes allowing the Republicans to steal them away. Basically, in that election two Democrats (Humphrey and Wallace) and one Republican (Nixon) ran and it allowed the Republican to win in a squeaker.

In the 1980 election, John Anderson was the darling of the white college educated/professor set. A few states might have flipped to Carter had he not run but no state would have flipped to Reagan had he not run. Even in a time when Lowell Weicker was a Republican Senator it can not be argued that John Anderson took any serious votes from anybody but Carter.

Ross Perot in the time he ran stole Reagan Democrats and Republican base voters. His issues were budget deficits. His demeanor was military. His voice and idiom was southwestern. In fact, I think he is a precursor to the tea party. While he did not take the Presidency from Bob Dole in 1996 he very well took votes that would never have gone to Clinton in 1992.

In fact, if you look at the numbers it is likely that without Perot, Bush would have won the states of Colorado, Connecticut, Georgia, Iowa, Kentucky, Maine, Montana, Nevada, New Hampshire, New Mexico, Ohio and Tennessee. These 95 electoral votes would have made it a squeaker with Louisiana right on the margin. We could have had a late night in the Bayou as we did in Florida in 2000. This does not even take into account the dynamic of having two candidates as opposed to just one sniping at Bush.

It is clear that Ralph Nader is a Democrat with no dilution for reason or reality. He is a tall Denis Kucinich. A Ted Kennedy without the appetite. A McGovern without the war record. Because 2000 was so close in Florida that alone means he cost Al Gore the Presidency.

What all of these examples have in common is that a man’s demeanor, background and positions will pull voters from one party or the other disproportionately. Incumbency is not determinative. Podhoretz states at the end of his piece that he can’t conjure up a scenario where a third party candidate does not hurt Obama and helps the Republicans. Well, let me get out my eye of newt and tincture of bat wing and commence conjuring.

Ron Paul. There. It’s done. Ron Paul may pull a few anti-Israeli leftists but his libertarian beliefs pull disproportionately from the Republican coalition. Libertarians routinely kill Republican Senate hopes by taking more votes than the margin of victory. Some might not vote, and some might vote Democrat but its no secret who the majority of such voters would vote for in a two party race.

This also discounts the “tea party” candidates. The Democrats in New York's 26th Congressional District ran a fake “tea party” candidate to help take that seat. In other races in New York a conservative independent has killed the Republican candidate. The only people I think who could do this are Sarah Palin and Michelle Bachman but they will not do so.

And don’t forget Ross Perot. He hasn’t gone anywhere, we have a bad deficit, and he’s just a few years older than Ron Paul. Anyone know what he thinks of Perry?