GOP Targets Murtha's Old Seat
Today, as Pennsylvania goes to the polls, forget about Specter versus Sestak. The real race worth watching is in the 12th district, where the GOP could pick up their first win of the midterm season.
Ever since his dramatic switch to the Democratic Party last April, Senator Arlen Specter’s bid for re-election has promised to be a dramatic one. But as he faces his first major hurdle on the way back to Washington – winning the Democratic primary today over congressman and former admiral Joe Sestak (D-PA-7) – the Senate race is increasingly a sideshow.
Today, as Pennsylvania goes to the polls, forget about Specter v. Sestak.
The real race worth watching is going down in the 12th district, in Pennsylvania’s rural, ex-industrial extreme southwest corner. Today, voters in that serpentine district that covers much of the area still devastated by the failure of Pittsburgh’s steel mills will elect a successor to Rep. John Murtha, who died suddenly in March after more than 30 years (and millions upon millions of pork-barrel dollars) in the House. The PA-12 special election carries much greater significance than simply replacing a longtime congressman – it has, without a doubt, become the strongest yet referendum on President Obama and Speaker Pelosi’s performance heading into the midterm elections this November.
The reasons why PA-12 has become so fascinating are several - as the DCCC reminds us, it is the only Democrat vs. Republican race in the country today. Murtha’s ability to bring home the bacon, as well as the heavily unionized workforce helped keep the seat in Democratic hands for three decades, but the economically depressed, rural, socially conservative voter base is a natural target for the GOP and its message of economic populism. After all, PA-12 is the only district in the country that John Kerry won in 2004 but Barack Obama lost in 2008. It’s a natural test bed for the GOP’s electoral strategy before November. If the GOP can’t win in PA-12, its ability to take the House or even gain a significant number of seats outside its traditional strongholds will be seriously thrown into question.
And, finally, like all good electoral races, it’s a nail-biter.
The most recent poll, conducted by PPP this week, has Republican candidate Tim Burns up by 1 point, 48-47 – well within the margin of error. His opponent, Democrat Mark Critz, has benefited from his previous work in the Murtha political machine. Despite (or perhaps rather because of) his questionable ethics, Murtha remains a powerful and popular figure, even in death, for the people of PA-12. Polls purporting to rank enthusiasm, while imprecise, show a slight advantage for Burns, but both candidates have enjoyed a last-minute surge of undecideds.
But many a political race has been decided on the basis of “intangibles”, and it seems they are decidedly on Burns’ side. Driving through the 12th district this week, one sees signs and posters for Burns everywhere. One shop owner used his marquee space to urge independents and Democrats to cross party lines and vote for Burns. His commercials run nonstop, and many a voicemail box runneth over from the deluge of Burns’ robocalls. Advertising – of any sort – for Critz is nowhere to be found.
On the one hand, money (of which the NRCC has invested a great deal) can’t always buy an election. Critz and Burns are still, statistically speaking, in a dead heat. But Burns and his ubiquitous presence on the lawns and TV screens of western Pennsylvanians has created an impression of momentum, one left utterly unanswered by Mark Critz. The race will assuredly be close, but you heard it here first: expect the first GOP trophy of the midterm season today in PA-12.