GOP Senate Pick-Up No Sure Thing
With Democrats defending at least eight seats Republicans could conceivably win, the GOP has the best opportunity of the decade to change the composition of the United States Senate. Although it would take a much better roster GOP of candidates than now exists, a 60-seat pickup doesn’t seem out of the question in theory.
The only problem: Right now Senate polls show that the GOP candidates are much weaker than one might expect.
In Wisconsin, where voters just kicked out the Sen. Russ Feingold, the one poll to date (albeit done by a Democratic polling operation) shows him trouncing potential Republican nominee former Gov. Tommy Thompson. In Florida, where Republicans control all statewide offices and have overwhelming majorities in the state legislature, Sen. Bill Nelson leads all Republican nominees convincingly. (This result, it’s worth noting is probably more a matter of name recognition than actual support.) Leftier-than-thou Ohio Senator Sherrod Brown has an edge over the three Republicans known to be seriously considering the race. Polling on New Jersey’s Senate race, never a strong Republican pickup opportunity by most estimates, shows Senator Robert Menendez cruising to victory over potential Republican candidate John Crowley.
Several races where recent election results show that Republicans have a theoretical chance of being competitive -- Michigan’s, for example -- still don’t have serious announced GOP candidates at all. Even in Nevada’s sure-to-be-close Senate race (possibly the best chance of a Democratic pickup), where appointed Republican Sen. Dean Heller has led Democratic Rep. and likely nominee Shelley Berkley in all polls taken to date, his once commanding lead has shrunk to a statistical dead heat.
Not all the news is bad for Republicans. The released polls on the Montana race show Rep. Denny Rehbergm (R) beating Sen. Jon Tester (D). Even Democratic pollsters also show Missouri Senator Claire McCaskill losing her reelection bid even against some lesser-known Republicans. In Virginia, where voters rejected George Allen a little less than five years ago, furthermore, he’s tied with former Gov. Tim Kaine. In Massachusetts, where Democrats’ overwhelming voter registration advantage suggests that Sen. Scott Brown should be trouble, the donkey party still hasn’t found a serious candidate to take him on.
The chances still look good for a Republican Senate takeover and almost 18 months from an election, polls aren’t all that predictive. But even a glance at the current polls show that even a very good map means that Republicans cannot and should not take a Senate takeover for granted. Winning the Senate for Republicans is going to require an effort to recruit serious candidates who can reach voters with a serious vision of reasoned conservative governance.