Campbell & Fiorina in Fundraising Dead Heat

Written by Tim Mak on Tuesday April 20, 2010

In California's GOP Senate primary, the Fiorina and Campbell campaigns similar fundraising totals could fuel an already fiercely competitive race, leaving the eventual victor short of funds for the general election against Sen. Barbara Boxer.

In the tight Republican Senatorial primary in California, the race between Tom Campbell and Carly Fiorina may come down to one factor: cash.

With the poll numbers close and the primary date less than two months away, both Campbell and Fiorina trumpeted their fundraising numbers last week. But with such similar fundraising figures, the resulting picture is an even more fiercely competitive race.

Both campaigns raised about the same amount in the last quarter: Fiorina raised $1.7 million, while Campbell raised over $1.6 million.

Campbell’s campaign, which got into the race months after Fiorina had declared her candidacy, argues that their slightly lower total can be accounted for by their late entry in mid-January, which gave them two fewer weeks to raise money in the quarter.

Further, Campbell spokesperson James Fisfis went on the offensive, telling FrumForum that Fiorina’s numbers amounted to a “Fiorina Flop… [she] packages herself to the public as a fundraising dynamo, with the D.C. establishment behind her, and yet she raises essentially the same as us.”

The Campbell campaign is also quick to point out Fiorina’s rate of spending.  Fiorina’s cash on hand is about the same now as it was in January, meaning she has spent close to $3 million this quarter.

“Money was meant to be spent,” Carly Fiorina told FrumForum on a media conference call. “We continue to best both of our primary opponents in every [fundraising] measure. We are beating them in fundraising. We are beating them on cash on hand. We are beating them in terms of the number of donors we’re attracting.”

A Fiorina spokeswoman also distanced the campaign from any association with the ‘D.C. establishment’, telling FrumForum that “the majority of donations to her campaign, both this quarter and last, have come from thousands of voters in the Golden State.”

Meanwhile, the Campbell campaign is unfazed by the tight fundraising battle. While pointing out that they expect to out-raise Fiorina, one Campbell insider deemphasized the importance of doing so.

"Based on every poll taken to date, the public thinks more highly of Tom than of Fiorina. Now that we are up and running, we fully expect to raise more money than her, but I don’t believe we even have to equal her to win... In any event history is replete with examples of rich candidates who didn't win," said Kip Hagopian, one of Tom Campbell's campaign finance co-chairs.

California, where retail politics is less effective due to the size of the state, is a battleground often won and lost on the airwaves.

"Campbell is already advertising on television and radio.  At this point, I think we have a several point advantage over [Carly Fiorina].  We don’t have to match her in advertising expenditures to win the nomination," Hagopian told FrumForum.

California media consultant Rob Stutzman disagreed, telling FrumForum that “Campbell needs to spend more than [Fiorina] in order to have a chance to mitigate his lack of appeal on… core issues” like his opposition to Proposition 8 and his pro-choice views.

Either way, Stutzman pointed out that while the two campaigns raised comparable amounts, neither campaign raised enough money last quarter to be truly effective on television:

“$1.6 - $1.7 million isn’t enough airtime.  A full 1,000 [Gross Rating Point] week in California costs about $3.3 million right now.  I think $2.3 - $2.5 million is the minimum you have to have to be on TV, otherwise [they should] commit to radio.”

So while the focus is on the Fiorina-Campbell primary at the moment, the real threat to GOP hopes is their relatively anemic fundraising compared to incumbent Democratic Senator Barbara Boxer, who had $8.7 million on hand at the end of the quarter, more than all three Republican candidates combined. In a single fundraiser with the President, she added an estimated $3.5 million to her war chest on Monday.

Put this way, both Fiorina and Campbell’s campaigns are struggling mightily to minimize the cash deficit that they would face in a general election. Winning the primary is one thing, but if the eventual GOP nominee wants to beat Boxer, they’re going to have to scrounge up a lot more donor dollars.

Categories: FF Spotlight News