Who Watches the Watchmen?

Matt Yglesias says he doesn't "get" why Tyler Cowen would describe public-choice theorem as important. Here's why. There's much more to public choice than a cynical assertion that politicians act in self-interested ways. Public choice (like so much else!) builds on an insight of the great …

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Written by David Frum on Thursday October 13, 2011

What if No One Gets Credit for the Recovery?

Seth Masket  writes : The upcoming presidential election is the most important election in a generation. . . . we are in the middle of (and hopefully on the tail end of) a truly catastrophic recession. The economy will recover, although that may not happen for several years. It seems fair to …

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Written by Andrew Gelman on Tuesday September 13, 2011

Obama's Surprisingly Big Base

The downgrade of the national debt, sagging approval ratings and better poll numbers for Mitt Romney are giving many Republicans hope for a victory in the 2012 elections. Given the inherent differences between elections, I wouldn’t count on current polls or anything else (including what I’m about …

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Written by Eli Lehrer on Monday August 8, 2011

Bogus Election Predictions

Like most other systems for predicting the winner of the presidential election using income growth to guess who will win (as Noah Kristula-Green does here ) probably isn’t all that valuable.  In fact, no far-in-advance predictor of reelection—not the 13 Keys to the Presidency (which is pretty …

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Written by Eli Lehrer on Friday August 5, 2011

Why 2012 is the Republicans' to Lose

As we get closer to 2012, there is one chart that pundits and columnists need to constantly refer back to in their writing - a scatterplot that shows how changes in real disposable income correlate with the success of the incumbent party in presidential elections: ( Courtesy of Seth …

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Written by Noah Kristula-Green on Thursday August 4, 2011

Thought From Engelsberg

Was Shiite Islam the first ideology when it emerged more than a thousand years ago, promising that justice could be achieved if only the right rulers were installed? The Engelsberg conference takes place in an elegant manor house adjoining the largely shuttered steelworks which made the fortune of …

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Written by David Frum on Thursday June 9, 2011