Yemen's Leader in Exit Talks

Written by FrumForum News on Friday March 25, 2011

The New York Times reports:

As demonstrators for and against President Ali Abdullah Saleh mustered for a new round of competing rallies on Friday, the Yemeni leader  was engaged in serious negotiations over the timing and conditions for the end of his 32-year rule, Yemeni and American officials said.

But, speaking on Thursday, the officials cautioned that no deal had been reached. In a television appearance, Mr. Saleh, in power for three decades, struck a defiant pose, referring scornfully to antigovernment protesters while offering amnesty to military defectors who return to the government’s side.

Nonetheless, the four-week-old protest movement appeared to be gaining momentum with the defections in the past week of a host of high-level government officials, including senior military commanders and ambassadors, and the protesters’ rejection of Mr. Saleh’s latest offer, to leave office by the end of the year.

The demonstrations on Friday are expected to be among the largest for both the anti- and pro-government sides. The antigovernment protesters have called Friday the “Day of Departure” and will gather after prayers at their usual location near Sana University.

Witnesses reported sharply increased security on the streets of the capital as Mr. Saleh prepared to deliver an open-air address to his supporters, who were arriving by the thousands for Friday prayers and a rally in Tahrir Square.  Mini-buses displayed large posters of him on the passenger side of the windshield; men riding in cars’ trunks waved Yemeni flags as they criss-crossed the city. But news reports said security forces had thrown up checkpoint around the city, seeking to prevent anti-Saleh demonstrators from flooding into the capital.

A week earlier, around 100,000 antigovernment protesters gathered for Friday Prayers just before snipers opened fire on the crowd.

A large number of pro-Saleh tribesmen, widely believed to be being paid by the governing party, entered Sana on Wednesday to rally around the president. The official Saba news agency has claimed that two million government supporters will mass in Sana’s main square on Friday morning for what they have called their “Day of Tolerance.”

Mr. Saleh spoke Wednesday night with the country’s most powerful military leader, Maj. Gen. Ali Mohsin al-Ahmar, a longtime ally who abandoned the president this week and directed his troops to protect the demonstrators.

General Ahmar also spoke on television on Thursday and said he had no interest in political power. “Military rule in the Arab world is outdated,” he declared.

Some reports suggested that both men might step down in a matter of days or weeks to make way for a transitional government and the writing of a new constitution. But one senior American official who was following events in Yemen closely said the immense complexity of Yemen’s tribal society, and Mr. Saleh’s history of brinkmanship, argued for caution.

“The general assumption is that his days are numbered,” said the official, who was not authorized to speak on the record. “But he seems determined to decide the number himself.” The official cautioned that the discussions about Mr. Saleh’s exit are “not just talks in a room” but negotiations involving representatives of 20 or more Yemeni factions and interest groups, often through intermediaries.

According to several accounts, the talks are being closely monitored by representatives of Saudi Arabia, Yemen’s wealthy northern neighbor, and the United States Embassy, which has relied on Mr. Saleh as an ally against the Qaeda branch in Yemen. ...

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