Will the GOP's Money Haul Translate to Wins?

GOP Senate candidates are raising money like crazy; but in Florida and Illinois, Marco Rubio and Mark Kirk have been slow to turn that advantage into a lead in the polls.

The NRSC is having itself a fine year. Republican Senate candidates are raising money like crazy, with candidates outpacing Democrats in more than ten Senate races. In every race for an open Senate seat, the Republican candidate raised more money in the second quarter than their non-Republican opponent.

In Illinois, Rep. Mark Kirk has overcome a seemingly endless wave of awful news cycles and raised an astonishing $2.3 million in the quarter.  His Democratic opponent Alexi Giannoulias raised only about $900,000 despite hosting several high-profile fundraisers. As of today, Kirk's cash on hand tally is almost four times larger than his opponent's.

In Florida, Marco Rubio had a huge second quarter, bringing in $4.5 million. His opponent Governor Charlie Crist, formerly a Republican, only raised $1.8 million in that same period, although Crist retains a significant advantage in the cash on hand category (where he leads Rubio with $8.2 million).

What does it all mean? NRSC spokeswoman Amber Marchand told FrumForum that "It's clear that the momentum we're seeing on the ground and in the polls is translating to strong financial support for Republican Senate candidates nationwide. Voters across America are tired of the Democrats' out-of-control spending agenda, and they're ready to restore much-needed checks-and-balances in Washington this November.”

This was the NRSC's line of the day (she gave an almost identical quote to the AP), and Marchand is certainly correct that Republican Senate candidates are running strong, but at least in Florida and Illinois, the fundraising advantage has not translated into better poll numbers -- at least not yet. In Florida, most polls show Crist running ahead of Rubio. And in Illinois, Kirk has failed to translate his huge fundraising advantage into a decisive lead.

That said, in Illinois, Kirk's huge fundraising advantage will make him hard to beat, assuming that he does not make anymore unforced errors. Giannoulias will have to spend considerable funds to try to turn out black, inner-city Chicago voters (whom Jesse Jackson Jr. could have delivered had he not abstained from an endorsement). Kirk's funds should allow him to flood the airwaves with ads in the months leading up the election. This makes him the favorite.

In Florida, Rubio has been heating up on the fundraising front, but still has some ground to make up and has considerably less cash on hand to do so. Crist is savvy and the Democrats are running so weak that there is a real risk that Democratic voters might shift to Crist to deny the GOP a victory. That said, Rubio is getting hot at the right time.

The polls are important, but there is no doubt that many Republican Senate candidates have put themselves in position to make a strong run at open seats. At this point, that's all you can ask for.

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