Will Tea Party Hurt GOP's Chances in VA-5?
With the establishment candidate set to win the GOP primary in Virginia's fifth congressional district, attention now turns to whether the Tea Party will back an independent challenger in the general election.
When I visited the town of Lynchburg, Virginia in March earlier this year, there were seven candidates running in the Republican primary for the Virginia's 5th congressional district seat with six of the candidates acting as Tea Party and grassroots challengers. With the establishment candidate set to win tonight’s primary, the question is whether the numerous Tea Party challengers can get behind him, or if they will decide that they must try and stop the so called "moderate" and support a potential spoiler.
Robert Hurt is the establishment candidate who has been attacked by the six challengers for being insufficiently conservative due to a vote he made five years ago in support of tax increases. With six challengers splitting the vote amongst them, Hurt looks set to win the primary tonight. Virginia law prevents candidates who run in a primary from running in the general election as an independent, so the question is whether any Tea Party members will be willing to endorse the newest independent challenger for the seat, Jeff Clarke.
Isaac Wood, an analyst of House races for the University of Virginia Center for Politics explains that Clarke, a political novice with no name recognition or infrastructure could only benefit if any of the candidates that lost endorsed him, “there are ten endorsements that are going to be crucial to him, the four Virginia tea parties and those six candidates who lose as soon as the victor is declared.”
Mark Lloyd, the Chairman of the Lynchburg Tea Party, suspects that “some” of the candidates will endorse Hurt if he wins, “but as far as the Tea Parties? I don’t know, I don’t see Tea Party endorsements for Mr. Hurt."
As for taking a stance against Hurt endorsing Clarke, Lloyd doubts that any candidate will do it, “Rumor has it, but I don’t buy into rumor. I know the media is trying to make a big deal out of Jeff Clarke.”
The fifth congressional district was won by Democrat Tom Perriello by a razor-thin margin in 2008, so a viable Clarke candidacy could act as a real spoiler for the Republicans. David Wasserman of the Cook Political report believes a well funded Clarke campaign with significant backing and endorsements could capture between 5% and 10% of the vote in the general election, which would help Tom Perriello.
The question for tonight’s election, is whether the Tea Party movement tacitly accepts Hurt’s nomination or if they will go to bat to challenge it.