Will Obama Sink the Dems in November?

Obama's numbers may be falling nationally, but some GOP candidates will need to be careful about turning their races into a referendum on the president.

Gallup released weighted state-by-state approval ratings for President Obama from January to June of this year. These figures suffer the same ills that all approval figures do -- namely they don't show the President running against anyone else and they often fluctuate from day to day.  But for our purposes, there are a few things worth pointing out that may have implications for the GOP's chances in the upcoming 2010 elections.

1. Both California (7^th if you include D.C.) and Illinois (10^th...if you include D.C.) are in the top 10 as far as satisfaction with the president goes. This won't impact the GOP in California, since the gubernatorial battle is being waged over how best to save the state from its own self-destruction and the Senate race is really only a race because the people of California are not very fond of Senator Barbara Boxer. In Illinois, however, the GOP and specifically, Mark Kirk, should take note. Illinois citizens by and large like the president. Gallup pegs the president's approval in his home state at 54%, with 39% disapproving. Kirk should continue to avoid issues like repealing Obama’s health reform plans and instead talk about fiscal responsibility and corruption. Kirk's cash advantage will play a key role in playing up his moderate credentials while gently reminding Illinois voters of Giannoulias; less than savory ties to the Democratic political establishment in Chicago. One thing that will be trying is that the White House will be dispatching the president to the Giannoulias campaign to try to stir up some dollars from unenthusiastic Illinois Democratic donors. Kirk would be well-advised to avoid attacking the president directly. Getting into a fight with the White House, with its ability to call up the national media at a moment’s notice, is a bad idea. Kirk has the cash advantage big time. Let the president come.  Kirk should just keep doing what he is doing and they won't dent the fundraising operation.
2. Harry Reid's approval in Nevada isn't great, but he is separating himself from Tea Party challenger Sharon Angle, probably, in part, because the people of Nevada are not overwhelmingly opposed to the president and his policies. Gallup puts Obama's half-year approval for Nevada at 48% approving, 46% disapproving. Reid now leads according to one recent poll, and virtually all polls show Reid steadily gaining ground. A more moderate GOP candidate could probably beat Reid, but Reid is a primary enabler of a president that the people of Nevada don't all hate.  Also, Reid is going to have a fairly easy time portraying Angle as too extreme, mainly because it’s true. Once the extent of Angle's “fringeness” comes out, it’s hard to imagine that any moderate voters will be casting their vote in her favor.
3. Florida's numbers are interesting. Gallup has Obama with 47% of Floridians approving and 45% disapproving. However, Florida's Senate race is being waged between a Republican and a former Republican, so it’s going to be hard to make it about Obama.
4. Dino Rossi won't be able to win in Washington by tying Patty Murray to the president. According to Gallup, Obama's numbers in Washington stand at 51% approving and only 42% disapproving. Rossi will need to frame himself as a moderate willing to work with the president but more in touch with Washington state's median voter, as opposed to his opponent Murray, who is too close with Washington D.C.'s liberal establishment to make decisions with the interests of Washington state in mind.

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