Why Vote Tory?

How much power do you want the NDP to have? How much do you trust the Bloc Quebecois?

Those are the urgent questions facing Canadian voters in this final week of the federal election campaign.

The polls are telling us that Canadians will almost certainly elect a Stephen Harper government on Jan. 23. Those same polls suggest that the government will be a minority, with between 135 and 150 seats out of 308.

If so, socialists and separatists will hold the balance of power in the next Parliament, just as they did in the last--and all Canadians need to think very hard about that outcome.

A large majority of Canadian voters prefer a steady, sensible economic policy of balanced budgets and a restrained role for the public sector.

A large majority take pride in Canada's role in the Western democratic alliance, and want to see the country working with traditional allies like the United States, Britain and Australia in defence of Canadian values and interests.

A large majority seek passionately to preserve and uphold Canadian unity.

A large majority want practical solutions to Canada's health care problems and reject the ideology that insists that Medicare remain frozen forever, exactly as it was created four decades ago.

You often hear it said that minority governments are more "responsive" than majority governments. That is true--except the people to whom minority governments respond are not the Canadian mainstream, but the ideological fringe.

Just look at what happened to Paul Martin's government. Elected with a minority, it found itself utterly beholden to the NDP--a party that had received only 15.7% of the vote. To please their junior partners, the Martin Liberals violated their promise to reduce business taxes. Martin had promised to work with the Americans to solve practical problems like softwood lumber. Instead, he was soon engaging in reckless anti-American rhetoric in a desperate effort to preserve his shaky minority in Parliament.

Minority governments are sometimes said to be more effective than majorities. But look again at the Martin record. Caught in the cross-current between the Bloc and the NDP, the Martin government failed to accomplish anything of note in its 18 months in power.

Maybe you think that minority governments will enhance democratic accountability. But almost every one of the democratic reforms Canada needs--from an elected Senate to greater scrutiny of judicial nominees--is opposed either by the NDP or by the Bloc.

There's a strong case that minority governments are less accountable than majorities. In a minority government, the small parties wield enormous power without accepting any responsibility.

Suppose, for example, that Stephen Harper does form a government. One of his commitments is to renegotiate the fiscal relationship between Ottawa and the provinces. Will it really be helpful to the negotiations if he always has to keep one eye on how the Bloc will respond?

For traditional Liberals especially, it will be important to ensure that the next government possesses a solid and effective majority. Honest and public-spirited Liberals have important work to do over the coming months to reform their party. But if they have to worry about an election occurring at almost any moment, Liberals won't be able to risk party reform--or a change of leadership.

Undecideds now amount to perhaps 15% of the voting population. As a general rule, undecided voters are younger than decided voters, more female and less interested in politics. They are highly sensitive to perceptions of political risk--one reason that the Liberals' last-minute negative ad blitz worked in 2004.

Three messages may help persuade those undecided voters to choose a more positive future this time.

First, a strong, clear and focused reminder of the very concrete measures voters like them can expect from a Conservative government: the reductions in GST, the child care benefits, the waiting time guarantees.

Second, it is the Liberals who now present the more out-of-the-mainstream, more risky alternative. They have ceased to be the prudent budget balancers of the mid-1990s; now, they are the party of deceitful negative ads and a sweating, shouting Paul Martin.

Finally, it's important to stress that a vote against the Conservatives is not a vote for a Liberal government, but a vote for instability and unpredictability. The Liberals cannot win--so a vote against the Tories is a vote to empower socialists and separatists.

Undecided voters worry about security. They feel they have a lot to lose, and not very much to gain. The Liberals have successfully spoken to those fears in four consecutive elections. But now the tide has at last turned. And Canadians need to know that the strongest Conservative government will be the safest Conservative government.