Why the GOP's Gains Won't Last for Long

Republicans hailing a new poll showing independents breaking for the GOP should be cautious. These gains may not last past this election.

Last week’s Pew Forum poll is, on its face, about the best news Republicans could have hoped for.  A chasm has opened up between Democrats and independent voters that will be all but impossible to close between now and Election Day.  Pew finds that among registered independent voters Democrats have a narrow lead: 47 to 44.  The likely voter screen results in a dramatic swing to the GOP, with independents indicating a Republican preference 49 to 36.  By contrast, in 2006 and 2008, independents gave 53 percent of their votes to Democrats in congressional races.  Among independents, 65 percent say they will “definitely vote” in November up from 59 percent in the last midterm election in 2006.  This tectonic shift among independents is the quake that will level the Democratic House and Senate majorities and shake the Obama administration to its foundations.

Beyond Pew’s headline numbers, the underlying trends must also be giving Democratic strategists the chills.  In every category except Hispanic and black voters, there are similarly large swings going on.  Democratic advantage among women drops from 13 percent among registered voters to just 3 among likely voters.  Buh-bye, gender gap. College graduates, 1 point Democratic lead to 6 point deficit.  Younger voters move from a 17 point Democratic lead to 4 points.  Republicans even lead among likely voters with a high school diploma by a margin of 48 to 45 among likely voters.

Shifting from the macro to the micro, how bad is it for the Democrats in individual races?  Choose your own adjective:  terrible, awful, unprecedented, catastrophic, McGovernesque.   In the House, the GOP has probably already captured 47 seats with at least another 20 or more still on the table.  In the Senate, with a national wave showing up in places like Wisconsin, West Virginia, New York and Connecticut, the impact of Christine O’Donnell’s primary win in Delaware is beginning to look like an unfortunate side-show.  A 50-50 Senate looks likely now; a 54-46 Republican Senate is the outer range of the possible.  For those inclined to disagree vehemently and start up with the name calling, think back over the past 12 months and the number of times the “unthinkable” has become fact on the ground  – then think again.

Republicans shouldn’t get used to the situation or regard the extraordinary alignment of the political planets as the new normal.  It is more like a once-in-multiple-generations convergence.  Two and four years ago, as the Bush administration drew to its tumultuous close, Democrats enjoyed base momentum and support from unaligned voters.  The unknowns – and the unknown unknowns – could easily reshape the political terrain yet again between now and 2012.   Meanwhile, the exiting Democratic Congress is leaving lots of raw material around for just that purpose:  a shaky economy, a federal budget in shambles, expiring tax cuts, an unpopular health law and, standing behind it all, the president with his bully pulpit and his always-relevant veto pen.  To paraphrase Margaret Thatcher, 2010 is not a permanent victory or a final defeat, just another scrum between the two parties to gain a tenuous and temporary hold on voter loyalties.