Why the Dems May Be Celebrating in November

Inside the Beltway, many Republicans seem highly confident that their party will score a 1994-style triumph in the midterm elections. But there is little reason to count on a massive GOP rout come November.

Particularly inside the Beltway, many Republicans seem highly confident that their party will score a 1994-style triumph in this November’s elections.  Certainly, President Obama’s relative unpopularity, the continuing high jobless rate, and congressional Democrats’ leadership style has done some damage to the Democratic Party brand. Several currently Democratic seats—at least two in the Senate, perhaps 10 in the House—do seem like surefire Republican pickups.  A lot can change in six months so, of course, large pickups are a possibility. But there’s little reason to count on a massive Republican rout come November. There are at least five reasons why any Republican who claims this is simply overconfident:

The Democrats have more resources: Although the Republicans congressional committee has a slight cash-on-hand advantage over Democrats, the blue party has consistently outraised the red one across the board.  Left-leaning “independent” organizations and grass-roots groups, furthermore, have many more resources than those on the Right.

The Democrats can afford a “bigger tent”: Because their current House and Senate majorities let them “lose” individual votes without sacrificing legislative priorities, Democrats are better able to accommodate ideological deviation. It’s nothing about the party’s core ideology—the Republican Party likely has more genuine ideological diversity than the Democrats—but, rather a simple matter of numbers.  Democrats facing tough races (e.g. Idaho’s Walt Minnick) were able to buck party leadership rather consistently on measures unlikely to prove popular back at home.  The need to pin unpopular policies on Democrats and retain perfect discipline in the Senate, however, made it nearly impossible for Republicans to play the “big tent” part.

The oil spill isn’t Katrina: The Bush administration’s terrible handling of Hurricane Katrina convinced many people—including many otherwise supportive of the administration’s stated policies—that it simply could not govern. Whatever the Obama administration’s errors in handling the oil spill, it isn’t Hurricane Katrina. The only deaths to have resulted from the spill were clearly the fault of BP and its subcontractors. Whatever additional human suffering results from the spill will accrue mostly to people who lose their jobs as a result and, since they’ll likely collect at least something from BP, most will probably be better off than those who lose their jobs for other reasons.  The key images from the spill are oil-stained birds, not suffering people.  At most, the spill seems likely to impact a handful of Gulf Coast congressional races and, even there, it’s quite possible that a “don’t drill” message (much easier for a Democrat to convey than a Republican) may resonate with voters.

There hasn’t been a wave of Democratic Party retirements: Historic congressional sweeps have taken place when members of one party have retired en masse rather than face tough elections.  In the House, more Republicans (20) than Democrats (17) have announced their retirements.  In both parties, furthermore, many retirements are in safe seats unlikely to switch parties.

Obama has delivered for the Democratic Party elite: The Republican base is, unsurprisingly, more energized than the Democratic one. But the structure of the Democratic Party makes this less important than it is for Republicans. While Republicans simply cannot win without an energized base, Democratic party cadres can call out unionized workers, full-time environmental activists, and government workers to man the polls and get out the vote on election day.  And, given that Obama has delivered on so many key priorities for the Left—a bigger government role in healthcare, more money for higher education, bigger government (via the stimulus), and even some modest gay rights measures—the Democratic Party elite has every reason to call out its troops in the crucial 48 hours before the elections. Republicans will more than match this effort but, for the most part, the Democrats can be expected to play a good ground game.

In conclusion, it’s almost certain that Republicans will pick up seats in both House and Senate but the overall chances of Republican control of either chamber remain smaller than many are saying.