Why Obama is Still the 2012 Favorite

Republicans are starting to feel confident in light of Obama's current troubles; however, the president is still in strong position for 2012.

Given his current poor poll numbers, some have concluded that President Obama has little to no chance of re-election.  Recent Michigan history is just one example showing otherwise, and conservatives would be wise to pay attention.

Recent Michigan electoral history may also be a good guide because there are a remarkable number of similarities between President Obama and Michigan Governor Jennifer Granholm.  Both are Harvard law grads.  By becoming the first woman governor in Michigan, Jennifer Granholm’s election made history just like Senator Obama’s election would six years later.  Their elections were hailed as moving away from the policies of prior Republican administrations.  Both had spent most of their political career doing little except running for higher office.  Both still seem to possess the same unfailing belief that first year law students have that their intelligence can better solve society’s problems than anything that has been tried before.  Neither has any experience in the private sector.  Both are firm devotees of the “green economy”.  I would say that neither had achieved anything except winning elections, but that would be unfair to Governor Granholm, who by all reports was a very competent Wayne County Corporation Counsel.

The first half of their first terms also look similar.  Under Governor Engler, Michigan’s unemployment rate plummeted and generally stayed low, but that changed after the election of Governor Granholm.  In fact, things were bad enough that Michigan’s population began to fall, as people, especially young ones, recognized there were no jobs for them here.  Michigan became locked in a one state recession and was probably the only state not victimized by Hurricane Katrina to lose jobs in 2005 and 2006.  Both sank in the polls.  Many Democrats were heard grumbling about how poorly she had done as Governor.  Some would even privately say that they hoped for a change in 2006.

Given the economic numbers, especially compared with the rest of the country, Governor Granholm should have had little chance to win re-election.  Instead, she won the 2006 election in a landslide.  Looking back, there are a number of reasons for this.  2006 was a bad year for Republicans.  Although the Republican candidate was and is a fine and honorable man, he turned out to be a poor candidate.  Governor Granholm again proved that she was a good candidate and managed to blame Michigan’s uniquely poor economy on President Bush.  And, while those Democrats might have grumbled, they lined up to fund her campaign and all turned out to vote.

Given the example of Governor Granholm, President Obama can certainly win re-election.  By 2012, he will have filled the biggest hole in his 2008 resume by serving four years as President and no one could credibly claim him to be inexperienced.  There is no reason for him not to say, in the most sincere and convincing manner, that he has learned from his mistakes.  No matter how much his policies harm the economy, enough Americans will continue to work hard enough in the private sector to pull the country out of the recession by then.   The Republicans will have at least de facto control of the Senate, and maybe actual control of both houses of Congress.  In fact, because a substantial Republican victory in November seems likely, anything else could be viewed as a de facto defeat for Republicans.  Without a doubt, the Republican party will make mistakes that a skilled politician like President Obama can use to his advantage.  By being partially in charge, they will also be partly to blame for whatever bad things are happening in America and the world by the 2012 election.

So, the real question to ponder might be not whether President Obama can win a second term, but why should he not win re-election?