Why Castle Will Win

Delaware Republicans want to win in November and that wish will help see Mike Castle through in the state's GOP Senate primary.

Tonight is the last big primary night of this election cycle.  There are races that are of vital interest to the GOP and others that are simply interesting for many reasons.  Here’s a good list of the main ones, minus D.C.  Jim Geraghty hits them all here.

I am in the habit of making predictions before the elections and though I have been unable to follow anything too closely I will not chicken out of the big ones.

In Delaware, Mike Castle will squeak by.  Sarah Palin and Jim DeMint have combined to back Christine O’Donnell while the RNC and the local Republican Party backs Castle.  I want Castle to win because I think he’s a decent guy who can take the seat in November.  I would love to see both Biden and Obama’s seats go Republican this cycle.  That will not happen with Christine O’Donnell as the nominee.  This is the rare case that I part from De Mint and Palin candidates versus the Republican establishment.  Delaware is extremely Democratic.  Castle is untouched by scandal and has won statewide many, many times.  On an issue like abortion he has voted against public funding.  His Democratic opponent will not.  My read on Delaware is that the Republicans there want to win as much as I do.  Instead of attacking O’Donnell, (or in addition to) Castle should have been highlighting his conservative votes (like I just did with abortion funding) and noting that he’s been voting for Republican measures for 25 years while O’Donnell has never gotten elected to do so.  The primary vote will be large but O’Donnell’s supporters are noisy (and like Palin and DeMint) from out of state.  I think Castle wins as anyone good enough for Chris Christie, National Review and the Weekly Standard will be good enough for Delaware Republicans.

In New Hampshire, the key race is for the Senate.  Interestingly enough DeMint and Palin back different horses. Palin (and the RNC’S) Kelly Ayotte is going to beat DeMint’s Ovide LaMontagne.  This year either one can beat the Democrat but in a New Hampshire primary a scandal free, well known, conservative like Ayotte backed by the party and Palin is going to beat the most right-ward candidate.  Expect Ayotte to split the hard conservative vote with LaMontagne and pick up more independents and establishment votes.  If she wins in a squeaker, Palin will have another chit in the politics bank.

Finally in D.C. I think that Adrian Fenty is going to lose.  This is not something I like predicting.  I think he and Anthony Williams have been the best mayors D.C. could expect.  But he has not covered his base.  “Yuppie measures” (like dog parks and same- sex “marriage” and an aloof manner and failure to cultivate his base have left Fenty vulnerable to a massive revolt of “old D.C.” that voted again and again for Marion Barry.  His opponent Vince Gray, specifically mentions the dog parks.  You do not see many Fenty yard signs in black neighborhoods.  I would hope that the multi-racial coalition that got him elected on a reform agenda would have held together but many people don’t see it.  They love him in Ward 3 but I don’t know how many votes he will get on the other side of the Anacostia River.  You have to dance with the girl that brung you and the feeling in D.C. is that Mayor Fenty forgot that.  The only thing that might save him is the demographic change that prosperity has brought to D.C.

As for New York, it’s a lost cause.  Rangel will win his primary and the election.  He has not been convicted of anything and “’Ol Charlie” brings home the bacon and has not lost his touch.  Rick Lazio will win this primary in a squeaker.  In the Senate races, I have no opinion.  Finally, Mr. Geraghty mentioned the race in New York’s first congressional district and I do want to comment.  It is important that Chris Cox, the son of the present chairman of the Republican Party lose.  His father is running the N.Y. Republican Party into the ground and kicking away the best chance for Republican gains since the 1980s.  His family should not be rewarded for that.  But in a great year for the GOP, New York is kicking it away.