Who Gets Bragging Rights if Brown Wins?
Well, now Charlie Cook, who knows whereof he speaks in these matters, has Brown as slightly favored. I saw the tired old politicians around Coakley along with President Obama yesterday, and I saw Curt Schilling, Doug Flutie (a man who supported Hillary Clinton) and a hilarious Cliff Claven (John Ratzenberger) around Scott Brown. It looks like the unthinkable is happening in Massachusetts. Coakley is hammering Brown for not wanting to tax banks that paid back TARP funds, while she is against taxing Fannie, Freddie and AIG which have not. She further seems to believe that he is going to close hospitals to rape victims and is selling this to the Massachusetts public. There is only one reason to take that tack. She wants to gin up the base. Normal people in Massachusetts do not believe the state’s problems revolve around undertaxed banks and untreated rape victims. But in a battle for the base Democrats have a lot more ground at the start. Some accuse John Zogby of pushing the Democrats all election then coming out with accurate polls right before Election Day so his credibility is maintained. I am not a pollster and it does feel like Brown will win. But, bullheadedly, I will stick with my week old prediction. The Democratic Party is united against Brown. There is none of the internal warfare that is usually needed to allow a Republican win (though her primary opponents are not going all out for her). If it’s close, the Dems will win and how could it not be close?
Finally, who will have bragging rights if Scott Brown wins? The FrumForum, new Republican Party? The tea party faction? The social issues Right? The Republican Party machine? My view is that every element of the Party but the last will have a legitimate claim to this victory. The national Republican Party ignored this race until Scott Brown willed himself into contention and delayed long after that. Scott Brown has avoided taking positions of purity that would turn off the majority of Massachusetts voters. He is not a kamikaze candidate. For that reason the Frum Forumites can gain some bragging rights. However, the energy and message of the campaign -- no Obamacare; no civil courts for terrorists -- is pure Tea Party. The banners are homemade, the crowds unpolished and unscripted. The social issues Right can also claim a portion of the win. If Coakley loses, her incessant Catholic bashing -- no nuns in emergency rooms -- will be part of it. The folks walking the precincts early on in this campaign and doing leg work now for a Brown win are right to lifers and anti-gay marriage Catholics. Brown has bowed to the corrupt deal that prevented a vote on same-sex marriage in Massachusetts but he is against it going national. Further, he is more pro-life than Ben Nelson on public funding. The lesson here is that only a united Republican Party can win elections in non-Republican states. The Party itself will not be innovative or risk taking. The candidate has to be the innovator, and he has to unite all branches of the conservative stream. Scott Brown has done this brilliantly. He has made spending and national security his lynchpin issues and then sold social conservatives on why they should not only vote for him, but enthusiastically back him. Normally, a candidate may have the backing of all factions of the Party but the enthusiasm of only one or two. Scott Brown has the enthusiasm of every wing of the Party. Tomorrow we will see if it, Obama’s first year, and the dreary campaign of Martha Coakley will be enough.