What's Next for the GOP?
Some Wednesday thoughts about Tuesday's Republican win:
The Importance of Playing for Time
Mr. Micawber, was right: if you wait long enough, something is bound to turn up. Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell, an unlikely Micawber if ever there was one, has been playing for time all year, hoping against hope to beat the healthcare bill. All through last spring and summer and into the fall until the last moment before the Christmas Eve vote, he artfully managed the rules and his fellow Republicans to slow the health juggernaut in the hope that something would turn up. And something did. His name is Scott Brown whose victory last night disproportionately strengthens the minority’s hand against the President’s top domestic priority.
Imaginary Mandates
A composite of the past 20 years of elections yields an interesting portrait of the two major parties and the public. The parties have consistently over-read their mandates and sought to take the country too fast in one direction or another. A public that is functionally conservative (wants change but wants it slow) has responded by dope-slapping the president and congressional majorities when they stray beyond the 40-yard line. This has been bitter medicine for both sides who have seen their visions for remaking American society undone by ballots of skeptical voters. The results from Virginia, New Jersey and, now, Massachusetts are just the most recent data of this phenomenon.
Managing Victory
Through the exercise of old-fashioned, conservative values like wisdom and prudence, Republicans now have a small chance to break out of this cycle by managing and building on their victory. This is a lot more complicated than it sounds because conservative activists will demand a confrontation with President Obama either now or after the November elections. Before pursuing this course, these activists ought to check with former Speaker Newt Gingrich who discovered how confrontation yields triangulation permitting the President to rebuild his popularity by portraying the Congress as a radical force only he can restrain. The Republican task over the next year and beyond is very tricky: keep the base engaged and motivated without permitting the President to demonize Republican policy.
Vicious (and Virtuous) Cycles
The public is in an anti-incumbent mood – but not all incumbents are created equally. There are more Democratic incumbents for the public to vent their anger against and those incumbents are tied to the unpopular policies of a president whose own personal popularity is increasingly in doubt. After Tuesday night, a good many supposedly “safe” Democrats are going to start polling and find they are not so safe after all. Expect more Democrats to see the virtues of “time with the family” and possibly a few more party switches. Meanwhile, Republican recruiting and fundraising will speed up. If Democrats make the mistake of pressing ahead with expansive government programs, like the health bill, they will fuel this trend. When things go right – or wrong – they tend to do so all at the same time. Depending on where you stand, a vicious or virtuous cycle is about to take hold that will disproportionately benefit Republicans in the run-up to November.