What Polls Don't Tell Us

Democrats shouldn't get too excited about a new Wall Street Journal poll finding that Obama has met voters' expectations.

Another day, another poll... The Hill reports on a new Wall Street Journal poll:

Fifty-eight percent of Americans say Obama has performed as they thought he would, with 12 percent saying he has exceeded their expectations. Just under a third, 29 percent, believe he's done worse.

Why does anybody even bother conducting such polls (unless detailed crosstabs are available)? Do they tell us anything?

Before Obama even became president I expected him to implement market unfriendly policies and go around the world apologizing for the United States. Has he met my expectations? You bet! Does it mean I would ever consider voting for him? You've got to be kidding!

What I would really love to know here is the partisan/ideological breakdown in each category, e.g. what proportion of people whose expectations Obama has met actually think it's a good thing. The most important category is the 29% who believe he's done worse. I would guess that a majority of them are very liberal voters who hoped for more and are now disappointed that Obama has not moved to the left far enough and fast enough. Most of those voters will still show up and vote for Obama in 2012. However some of the disappointed voters are centrists who hoped that Obama would rule from the center. Unfortunately the poll does not tell us anything about their number.