What if Obama Knew Chicago Would Lose?

Pretty sad picture of President Obama and Michelle and Jacques Rogge of the International Olympic Committee yesterday, wasn’t it?  You’d think it would have been all smiles, but there he was after the speech with head down.  And only four hours in Copenhagen?

Well, one can believe the Daleys can’t count votes anymore.  And the result probably couldn’t have been predicted in advance (for one thing, the IOC works differently from other international organizations, so it’s not like a formal demarche where a foreign government might give a formal answer on its expected vote at an upcoming international meeting).  IOC members are supposed to be independent (cough, outside of what used to be called the Free World).  Still, Chicago organizers should have at least known they would not get eliminated in the first round.  Perhaps things did change quickly after the tragic beating death of Derrion Albert and the late poll showing only minority support for hosting the Olympics (the IOC loves nothing more than to be loved and to have its folkways respected, one of which is that ordinary taxpayers want to have and pay for the Games.  Any doubt on this score is likely fatal.)

On the other hand... Insider loves a good conspiracy theory as much as anyone else, so here’s one.  Given that Obama looked pretty somber rather than happy in that picture after his speech, did they actually know that they were going to lose?  Let’s say opinion did swing to Madrid in the last few days.  (As an aside, Madrid’s 28 votes in the first round could represent the entire European Union, less Spain which could not vote plus one of the candidate countries, Croatia or Iceland.)  But by this point, the President had already committed to go to Copenhagen.  Not going would have been a slap in the face to the IOC (who love to be loved) and a virtual admission of defeat.  So go and leave before the vote.  Make Chicago happy and don’t embarrass yourself too much before the family of sport.

And if this is right?  Then the Obama crowd really missed a trick.  Really, really missed a trick.  The President’s remarks should have included a line about how Chicago was competing against “four great cities, though I also regret that the excellent and historic bid of Doha, Qatar, was not considered for this vote today.”  (Doha actually scored higher than Rio in the evaluation round, but because the Qataris understandably wanted to hold the Olympics in cooler October, theIOC ultimately did not accept the bid for today’s vote.)

That’s Muslim world outreach – telling the Arab world we wouldn’t mind having the Olympics there, and not a word about settlements, Iraq, or Gitmo.  Just the American belief in fair play, in both senses of the words.