Weighing the Dems' Obamacare Boost

Democrats are touting a new poll showing that a plurality of voters back the healthcare bill. But for the GOP, these numbers may not be as politically worrying as they might appear.

The bill may be a long-term catastrophe, but as I argued the other day, the bill's passage may breathe new life into a presidency that just recently seemed stalled. A new Gallup/em>USA Today poll <shows a startling turnaround in the way Americans feel about healthcare reform. When asked whether they thought the bill was a good thing or a bad thing, 49% responded that it was good that Congress passed the bill while 40% said it was a bad thing. 48% believe the legislation is “a good first step” that needs to be followed by more reform, and 4% say the bill makes the most important fixes needed to the nation's healthcare system.

The bill is polarizing. 31% say the bill makes the “wrong types of changes” on top of the 8% of respondents who said the healthcare system doesn't need to be reformed at all.

More troubling, but hardly surprising given his visibility and the unitary nature of the executive office, 46% of respondents believe the president's job performance on healthcare has been “excellent or good” while 31% characterize it as poor.

As usual, everyone hates Congress (although, paradoxically, most don't hate their congressman). 32% called the Democrats' healthcare performance “excellent or good” while 26% said the same of Republicans. 33% responded that congressional Democrats performed poorly on healthcare, one point lower than the 34% that said the same of congressional Republicans.

For the GOP, the change in numbers is not as politically worrying as it might appear at first glance. USA Today found that the new support is mainly driven by two groups that tend to stay home on election day: the poor and young people. Demographically, the poll reveals a huge age divide over the bill. Well over 50% of people over 40 (who tend to turn out at the polls) oppose the bill, whereas a strong majority of those under 40 support it.

Because of the demographics driving the statistics, the numbers above do not point to any electoral shift, and in fact highlight why Republicans may be poised to take back seats in both houses of Congress. Their real impact is that now our ever so cocky, history-seeking president now has a temporary supply of political capital. The thought of what he might spend it on is enough to make any conservative cringe.