Voting Day In Ny-20

Today’s the big day in upstate New York. Jim Tedisco vs. Scott Murphy. I’m naturally nervous but not at all in despair over Jim’s chances. As Matt Dill, Jim’s political director in the State Assembly, told me on Sunday night, “I think we’re gonna win it.”

Keep in mind this is the same campaign that as recent as last Thursday told me, “It looks like we’re gonna lose this thing… it’s gonna be a dead heat” (expletives and angst not included). Of course, over the weekend two things happened:

1. The fact that Scott Murphy opposes the death penalty for the 9/11 terrorists in Al Qaeda actually (and unexpectedly, I confess) caught major fire. People are talking about it, and I hear the grassroots are pretty disturbed by it. Very good news.

2. Jim basically won the endorsement of the upstate press. This includes the flagships like The Saratogian (liberal) and em>The Post Star< (more moderate but also based in Murphy’s “hometown”) and others like em>The Adirondack Daily Enterprise< and Ballston Journal, plus many that sided with Jim before the weekend such as the very liberal Poughkeepsie Journal, Glens Falls Chronicle, the New York Post, etc. (The Albany Times Union, a major paper to be sure, predictably endorsed Murphy but their argument that Tedisco is a Republican just like Rush Limbaugh is disgusting and pathetic.)

The Tedisco campaign is exhausted but at the same time relatively hopeful. “We’re hearing a lot of new and different things,” a Tedisco staffer told me over the weekend. From the Democratic side, government professor Bob Turner from Skidmore College in Saratoga (the heart of the district) sent me his thoughts as well. An avid Murphy supporter, he replied, “I really have no clue” when I asked him to predict who’ll be taking this one. To sum up his other thoughts:

• It is going to be the 2nd most expensive special election in American history, 2nd only to the special to replace former GOP speaker Dennis Hastert’s seat where spending was about $10 million.
• Turnout in special elections is about slightly less than ½ of what it was in the general election. In the 8 closely contested special elections since 2007, they’ve seen approximately 90,000 voters. Lower turnout favors Tedisco, since higher turnout means more independents (who’ve been breaking for Murphy) are voting.
  
• Since 2000, there have been 33 special elections, only 7 times has control of the seat switched parties.
• The last time the GOP won a special election for a seat that was held by a Democrat was in 2001. (VA 4th District, Forbes.)
• Democrats have been on a winning streak since 2006, winning 9 of 12 seats.
• There are three more special elections coming up for Rahm Emanuel, Hilda Solis, and Ellen Tauscher, all of whom have accepted positions in the Obama Administration. All three are very reliable Democratic districts. Republicans need this to be their victory!
• The Saratoga County Board of Elections has reportedly given out an extremely large number of absentee ballots, so if the race is close, it might not be decided by tonight. (Saratoga County = 1/3 of the 10-county district.)

There’s nothing quite like Election Day in March! Tonight will be very interesting, to say the least.