Voters Go Wobbly on Deficit Cutting

A new poll shows that 71% oppose raising the debt ceiling. But a closer look suggests the public isn't as serious about the deficit as you may think.

The latest Reuters/Ipsos poll provides yet more confirmation that the Tea Party's priorities are sharply at odds with those of the vast majority of voters.  According to the poll's findings, 71% oppose a rise in the debt ceiling. On the surface, the numbers suggest that the most radical Tea Partiers like Michelle Bachmann are onto something. But a closer reading of the poll shows that the public is not really serious about cutting the deficit (and will in fact severely punish the politicians if they actually refuse to raise the debt ceiling).

Keeping the debt ceiling at its current level would require severe budget cuts. Is the public actually ready for them? Well, there’s a strong consensus at least for some cuts – 73% want to cut foreign aid. Alas, only a fraction of one percent of the federal budget is spent on foreign aid. So cutting it, while risking seriously destabilizing the Middle East, would not put a dent in the deficit. 51% support cutting military spending. That’s a more serious proposition (and also a warning to conservatives who think that a hawkish position on national security is a sure winner in national elections). But even if we eliminated absolutely all military spending and closed the Pentagon, we would still have a huge budget deficit this year and the national debt would still keep increasing.

So, what does the government actually do with all that money it borrows from China? Why, it uses it to cover millions of Social Security checks it sends out every month (has there ever existed a sounder retirement system anywhere in the world?). In fact, if we did not have Social Security and Medicare, we would be quickly paying down the national debt right now. So, the public that supposedly does not want the national debt to increase any further must surely be willing to cut entitlements, right? Well, not exactly. 20% support cutting Social Security and 23% support cutting Medicare. In other words, there’s no serious evidence that even a quarter of voters really care about the deficit – rather than just giving it lip service. Fortunately, even most Tea Partiers in Congress seem to realize that and intend to vote to raise the debt ceiling.