Turning Generation Obama On to the GOP
When you receive the global notoriety and million-dollar bonuses I do as a contributor to FrumForum, it probably isn’t too smart to disagree with the guy whose name is on the joint.
But what the heck.
David Frum’s recent National Post piece makes some good points in warning the GOP not to assume all is well with younger voters simply because we are headed for a massive November victory, but I think he reads too much into my generation’s current political affiliations and sensibilities. Rather, I am quite hopeful that my generation will become an asset for a well-run GOP in the coming years.
David cites polling data that show the healthcare bill, bigger government, President Obama’s economic policies, and Obama himself to be more popular among the young than the old. The two main reasons for this are as obvious as the causes for them transient.
- Young people aren’t really paying for anything yet: Historically, people become more economically conservative as they age. When you’re young and don’t have a six-figure salary getting taxed to death, it’s perfectly rational to want more government and higher taxes, i.e., to vote for policies that get you wealthier people’s money. But when individuals start feeling the pain of higher taxes when they really need the money for kids, the house, the mortgage, and college and retirement to pay/plan for, not just boozy nights out on the town with the bros/in the hottest shoes/whatever, they begin to find government a lot less appealing. Just let the under-30 crowd start making real money and take on real responsibilities and these numbers will come down.
- The “Barackstar” Effect: David notes that the young still give Obama a 58% approval rating, which is a lot higher than his current RCP Approval Rating of 46%. However, in February of 2009, young voters gave Obama a shocking 73% approval rating. That’s a steep drop, and one that will likely continue as already-super-cynical young folks keep discovering that all that Hope and Change happy-talk was nothing but a lot of unicorns and magical rainbows.
Social issues hold a deeper long-term electoral problem. Here, David has been right for some time in calling the GOP to not just beat the gay marriage drum every two years and call it “party branding,” as especially younger voters are increasingly liberal on sexual issues.
But not so with abortion. As this recent em>Newsweek piece< showed, the young who care deeply about abortion are much, much likelier to be pro-life than pro-choice, putting the “enthusiasm gap” in the GOP’s favor. And the rest remain just lukewarm in their support—and as we all know, lukewarm people simply don’t go voting all that often.
Translation: if not overdone, the party’s social stance of largely pro-life and anti-gay marriage doesn’t have to be a net loser at all with the young. And as David noted, young folks don’t vote as much as older, more socially conservative voters do anyhow.
In the end, the GOP will have to earn young voters’ trust. But color me a bit less doleful than the good Mr. Frum over the GOP’s ability to do it.