Toomey Faces Uphill Battle

Like him or hate him, most Republicans probably should have cheered for Benedict Arlen Specter on Tuesday night because Joe Sestak is going to be harder to beat. Rasmussen's latest poll shows Sestak out to a four point lead over GOP candidate Pat Toomey.

Like him or hate him, most Republicans probably should have cheered for Benedict Arlen one last time on Tuesday night because Joe Sestak is going to be a heck of a lot harder to beat. Rasmussen's latest poll shows Sestak out to a four point lead over Toomey by a margin of 46-42. Only 9% of voters are undecided and 3% say they won't vote for either. These numbers are way up from two weeks ago, when Rasmussen had Sestak and Toomey running even.

It is unclear which candidate (Sestak or Toomey) comes out of the primaries in better shape. On one hand, Toomey faced virtually no competition and had to spend almost no money to secure the nomination (he won 82% of the vote in Tuesday's Republican primary). But while Sestak waged a bloody primary battle and spent tons of money in his battle to knock off Specter, it may have been money well spent since the race attracted so much press (both local and national) that Sestak's name recognition among Pennsylvania voters is probably considerably higher than it would have been had Specter gracefully stepped aside. For instance, Sestak's support among Democrats has jumped from 64% to 80% since Tuesday's primary whereas Toomey's support among his base has remained pretty much the same. Toomey holds a significant lead among independents (41%-32%) so solidifying the Democratic base and getting it to turn out will be crucial if Sestak is going to win. Toomey, on the other hand, needs to score more independent votes if he is going to make up the deficit and take the race.