Thune's Out. Who Gains?

Written by David Frum on Tuesday February 22, 2011

Today, South Dakota Senator John Thune announced that he wouldn't run for president in 2012. What does his decision mean for the rest of the GOP field?

If you work on the assumption that the 2012 GOP nomination contest is a battle between Romney and not-Romney, John Thune's departure helps Romney by removing a plausible candidate who is not Romney.

If you think Romney is already terminally wounded, then Thune's departure helps the best organized of the not-Romney alternatives: Tim Pawlenty.

If you think that Republican primary voters are struggling to find a candidate who is 100% conservative but also free from the baggage carried by Sarah Palin and Newt Gingrich, that mission just got a lot harder.