The Woman Who Wins in the Sanford Affair

It's plain enough who the losers are in the Mark Sanford story: the governor, his family and loved ones. But there are winners too - the surviving GOP presidential candidates relieved of one more competitor in the crowded right edge of the party field. Who is likeliest to benefit? Nominations are open. My guess: Gov. Sarah Palin. Despite her advantages in opinion polls, Palin faces considerable obstacles en route to a GOP nomination. 1) It was Mitt Romney not Sarah Palin who came second in the 2008 contest - and the GOP has repeatedly turned next time to the candidate who finished second last time. (IE: John McCain finished second in 2000, Bob Dole finished second in 1988, George HW Bush finished second in 1980, Ronald Reagan finished second in 1976.) 2) Romney has already established an effective fund-raising and vote-mobilizing apparatus. Palin has to begin from zero. 3) Palin is prone to emotional mistakes, including her breach with Levi Johnston, father of her grandchild, and a man to keep inside the tent if there ever were one. (What do you bet that Johnston becames a national campaign correspondent for MTV or Comedy Central in 2012?) Palin's best hope is to quickly consolidate a conservative following and frame the choice as one between a "true conservative" and an unacceptably moderate Romney. Entry into the race by a Mike Huckabee, a Mark Sanford, a Newt Gingrich or a Bobby Jindal - each with their own credible conservative credentials - adds to the difficulty of her not-easy task. The fewer such entrants the better. Now there will be one fewer.