The Real Winner in NY-23: A Public Option
The conservative infighting in the race for New York's 23rd congressional district could not come at a worse time in the fight to stop a government takeover of healthcare. After seeing the battle between GOP candidate Dede Scozzafava and Conservative Party challenger Doug Hoffman in what was previously a safe Republican seat, the Democrats are getting the message that there is not much to fear from the GOP and the recent resurgence of the public option may be a sign of the Dems restored morale.
The only thing that stands between us and a government takeover of healthcare (which, according to Mark Steyn, may well lead to the permanent death of conservatism) is low morale amongst congressional Democrats. The president's popularity has been dropping, Congress itself has lower approval ratings than used car salesmen, the unemployment rate is rising, the dreaded midterm election is just a year away and everyone clearly remembers how the previous healthcare reform attempt played out.
Retaking the House in 2010 has always been a very long shot for Republicans, but depending on how events develop (especially with the economy), a disciplined nationwide campaign by a unified GOP might have had a chance to succeed. One could not invent a better morale booster for the Democrats than managing to steal a previously safe Republican district. Even if that does not happen and Hoffman somehow pulls it off, enough damage is already done and the Democrats may be emboldened to push for stronger reforms.
Yesterday, in her endorsement of Doug Hoffman, Sarah Palin wrote that "there is no real difference between the Democrat and the Republican in this race." In the end though, the Democratic candidate will vote for Pelosi for Speaker and to keep Rangel, Frank, Waxman, Conyers as chairmen of key committees. The Republican (assuming she's not actually going to switch parties) would vote against them. Despite Palin's claim, that difference alone is real enough. Furthermore, even when the House majority is not at stake, the outcome of the organizing resolution still matters, because the numbers of Republicans and Democrats determine the split in committee memberships.