The One Issue Presidency

By diverting all of his attention to the health bill, Obama may find that he does not have political capital left over to convince the American public to sustain a commitment in Afghanistan or push Congress to cut the deficit.

In his speech to a joint session of Congress last night, President Obama made clear that he intends for healthcare reform to be the defining issue of his first term.  At a time when our economy remains weak, our federal debt is spiraling out of control, and our war effort in Afghanistan is floundering, this singular focus on healthcare is completely misguided.

Let's begin with Afghanistan.  During his campaign, President Obama rightly acknowledged the importance of succeeding in Afghanistan, stating at one point that "if another attack on our homeland comes, it will likely come from the same region where 9/11 was planned," meaning Afghanistan.

But the situation in Afghanistan has gravely deteriorated on President Obama's watch.  Our counterinsurgency effort is making little progress.  Our relationship with President Karzai has frayed, in part due to diplomatic missteps by the Obama administration.  Most recently, allegations of widespread fraud have tarnished Afghanistan's recent elections, casting a cloud over U.S. efforts to promote democracy in that country.  As a result of all these factors, support in the United States for our war effort in Afghanistan has reached a new low.

Just as Afghanistan finds itself most in need of his attention, however, the president is spending all of his time and political capital on healthcare reform.  President Obama did not mention Afghanistan even once last night -- despite the fact that he delivered his address two days before the eighth anniversary of 9/11.  President Obama is running the very real risk that he will not have sufficient political capital left over to convince Congress and the American people of the need for a sustained commitment to success in Afghanistan.

Equally disconcerting, however, is the president's inattentiveness to the economic and fiscal morass in which we presently find ourselves.  President Obama spent a few minutes last night touting the steps his administration has taken to catalyze an economic recovery.  But unemployment is still on the rise, and other economic indicators remain less than confidence-inspiring.  Most worrisome, our debt level is reaching unprecedented and unsustainable levels.  The CBO projects a $1.8 trillion deficit this year and deficits of between $600 billion and $1.2 trillion for the rest of Obama's term.  Taken together, economists now estimate that the federal debt will increase by roughly $9 trillion over the next ten years.

Contrary to the president's repeated assertions, his proposed healthcare reform would add to these economic woes.  He cannot avoid that inconvenient fact.  The CBO has estimated that the president's proposed reform will cost around $1 trillion, adding that much more money to the federal debt.  This is simply unconscionable in the present context.  Until he is able to set the economy on the right course and get these deficits under control, it is irresponsible for the president to propose yet another costly expenditure.

Afghanistan, economic recovery, and reducing the federal debt: These are the acute challenges that President Obama must immediately tackle.  And if he tackles them successfully, he will win reelection -- and will find himself well-positioned to focus on healthcare reform in his second term.