The New Front in the War on Terror
One benefit (if one dare call it that) of the underwear bomber’s failed attempt to blow up an American airliner over Detroit, is that it has drawn attention to Yemen as a training ground for al-Qaeda terrorists.
Although President Barack Obama initially described Umar Abdulmutallab as an “isolated extremist, ” it turns out he was trained by al-Qaeda in Yemen and the CIA knew all about it.
Now Secretary of State Hillary Clinton talks about the “global implications” of al-Qaeda using Yemen “as a base for terrorist attacks” around the world.
Others go further and suggest the U.S. should intervene (a war is going on between Shi’a and Sunni factions). Many feel Guantanamo should be maintained for “illegal” Yemeni fighters.
Yemen is a mountainous country that is akin to Afghanistan as far as being difficult to invade. One can assume that American intelligence people are already involved in the country and have a pretty solid idea of what is going on – especially since 2000 when the USS Cole was attacked in Aden, killing 17 sailors.
Yemen holds the distinction of being the poorest country in the Muslim world, with 40% of its 23 million population unemployed. Roughly half its population is under 16 years old, and boasts the world’s highest birthrate. In elections, everyone over 18 can vote, but only Muslims can hold elected office. Hmm.
The U.S. channels nearly $70 million in “security aid” to Yemen (up more than 50% from 2008) in hopes of curtailing al-Qaeda mischief.
A regime of endemic corruption, there are no guarantees how the American money is spent, or who spends it, or in which unnumbered Swiss bank account it winds up in.
The Sunni Muslim government is at war with the rebellious Shi’ite north which has support from Iran, and in some cases is better armed than government troops, who are supported by Egypt and Saudi Arabia, with tacit approval and help from the U.S.
Yemen’s government forces total about 70,000, which is a larger army than Canada’s military, but are unable to curb the hostile tribal areas of the north.
The Americans fear if they intervene to eliminate al-Qaeda training camps, it’ll be another quagmire and make them another Middle East enemy.
This is probably true, but one can’t help but feel that the U.S. is already involved in a clandestine way, much as the British have been in neighboring Oman. Britain abandoned Aden in 1967, and feuding factions unified in 1990 as the Republic of Yemen.
Britain’s Special Air Service (SAS) has quietly and lethally been involved in the region whenever required. With cooperation and coordination among allies, they might be of inestimable value in taking out al-Qaeda training camps.
These days, some Americans (Vice-President Joe Biden?) think unmanned explosive drones are the best (and safest) weapon for counter-insurgency. They aren’t. Some estimates put the number of potential Yemini al-Qaeda terrorists at 300; reports indicate that roughly 50% of Yemeni “illegal fighters” released from Guantanamo have already returned to the terrorist fold.
Although the Yemeni government is fragile and unreliable, one thing they are not averse to is killing enemies. That Gitmo detainees who’ve been returned to Yemen are soon freed speaks volumes about the regime in charge. One hopes that will now change.