The Hundred Days

My take, on American Public Media's Marketplace, can be heard or read font color="#000000">here.<

The United States is wracked by the worst financial crisis in decades. Experts estimate the bad debt in the economy at anywhere from $1.5 to $3.5 trillion.

President Obama's economic plans are all based on the assumption that the correct figure is at the low end of that range. That's the assumption that lies behind every one of his key economic decisions, from the $800 billion in stimulus to his plans to proceed fast with a big new health-care program and cap-and-trade for carbon emissions.

If the president is right, then the United States can probably afford his policies -- just.

If he's low-balled it, then the United States will find itself, a year or two from now, seeking to borrow another trillion on top of debt levels that have already hit peacetime highs. The most important of his decisions are already locked in, and the others are minutes away. President Obama promised dramatic change. But in one way, he follows so many of his recent predecessors: on the eve of day 100, he has gambled his presidency on his affair with that always popular Washington belle: Rosy Scenario.