The Health-care Nuclear Option

The President’s approval ratings remain sky high. His opponents are disorganized and divided, while important Democratic leaders are working well together. Industry groups, once fiercely opposed to Democratic reforms, are keen to cut a deal. From a distance, everything seems to be going smoothly for passage of sweeping health-care legislation this year. Like with the stimulus package, the administration is steam-rolling over Republicans.

So why all the talk about reconciliation?

In recent weeks, Democrats have floated the idea of using this obscure parliamentary rule, employed just 29 times since 1980. Yesterday, House Democrats voted again to endorse it and the White House isn’t exactly distancing themselves from that effort. Reconciliation would allow Democrats to pass health-care legislation with 51 votes in the Senate, instead of 60 – effectively “bypassing” the GOP, to quote the em>New York Times<. And while Senate Republicans would still have options to slow down health-care legislation if Democrats use it – see question 4 in this em>Politico piece< – reconciliation is the nuclear option.

Perhaps the White House isn’t quite as confident as they might like us to believe they are. And no wonder. President Obama’s health-care agenda is bold: it includes mandates for employers, a Medicare option for the uninsured and small businesses, and massive new government spending. This agenda has already sparked sharp resistance from some Republicans. When specific legislation (along with a big price tag) comes forward, it’s likely that opposition will grow, not shrink. And the Democratic coalition itself may not be as strong as people assume.

Does that mean that 2009 is the new 1994? As I’ve argued before, there is great pressure for a deal this year.

But pressure doesn’t necessarily mean results. President Obama needs to accept that campaign rhetoric will not easily translate into legislative success. Democrats will need to compromise, abandon controversial ideas, and start working with Republicans.

The Obama White House doesn’t seem too keen for any of this. And thus, the talk of the seemingly perfect solution: avoid all the deal-making and go with reconciliation.

It’s April. Senate Democrats will not finish fashioning their proposed legislation for another couple of months. Things can change. But the prospects of sweeping health-care legislation passing this summer have weakened just slightly this month. It’s not that Republicans adopted a winning strategy, so much as the Obama administration appears to be making the tactical error made by so many past occupants of the White House: becoming arrogant.